TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020924
Played Aug 27Finished
Daniel Tomica
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711411511––––
Matej Grundel
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:08 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Tomica above · Matej Grundel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 49 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Matej Grundel at 57.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tomica 9–11 Matej Grundel Daniel Tomica has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:08What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Grundel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Grundel
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tomica 1706 vs Grundel 1834
Grundel
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tomica 40% vs Grundel 80%
Grundel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tomica 30% vs Grundel 70%
Grundel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tomica -1 · Grundel +4
Grundel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Grundel) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grundel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTomica 2.25 / Grundel 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Grundel)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020924
Tomica2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 24 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back20% 6 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Grundel1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 68 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it73% 47 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTomica3wins
AwayGrundel7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGrundel leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTomica40%2 of 5
AwayGrundel80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tomica5Grundel5n = 10split evenly
S2Tomica1Grundel9n = 10Grundel took 9 of 10
S3Tomica3Grundel7n = 10Grundel took 7 of 10
S4Tomica2Grundel4n = 6Grundel took 4 of 6
S5Tomica2Grundel1n = 3Tomica took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTomicaGrundelT − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.238.2−6.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTomicaGrundelBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 177 vs 158 / 30147.5%52.5%84 / 177 vs 158 / 301Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrundelTomica 2.25/Grundel 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Grundel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Grundel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 15:00D. Tomica—118661M. Grundel—61111113
WAug 8 · 10:30D. Tomica—11511113M. Grundel—911961
LAug 7 · 16:30D. Tomica—11550M. Grundel—1311113
LJul 17 · 17:30D. Tomica—5870M. Grundel—1111113
WJul 17 · 15:30D. Tomica—116611113M. Grundel—61111642
LJul 11 · 10:00D. Tomica—10640M. Grundel—1211113
LJul 2 · 14:00D. Tomica—117111152M. Grundel—811813113
LJun 1 · 17:00D. Tomica—6930M. Grundel—1111113
WJun 1 · 15:00D. Tomica—11111110113M. Grundel—13681222
LMay 26 · 16:00D. Tomica—127741M. Grundel—101111113
D. Tomica10
WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931LAug 27 · 14:00L. Prikasky1.4491111113D. Tomica2.63118821WAug 22 · 12:58D. Tomica1.8319117113M. Vavrecka1.831751191WAug 22 · 12:00D. Tomica2.2011811173M. Vavrecka1.613119151LAug 22 · 11:30O. Paril1.571111113D. Tomica2.258490
M. Grundel10
LSep 3 · 17:29M. Skotnica1.6112114113M. Grundel2.201091191LSep 3 · 16:00M. Grundel2.1012871192M. Skotnica1.671011119113WSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113WSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WAug 27 · 17:28M. Grundel1.831111109113L. Prikasky1.8382121192LAug 27 · 16:00L. Prikasky1.83119811113M. Grundel1.8361111882WAug 27 · 14:30M. Grundel2.001111113L. Velebil1.737750WAug 26 · 17:03M. Grundel1.771011812113L. Prikasky1.95127111072WAug 26 · 16:59M. Grundel1.911011812113P. Libor1.80127111072WAug 26 · 16:30M. Grundel1.80113111113M. Navedla1.9161161192
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