TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12471185
Played Aug 22Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118114119––––
Daniel Tomica
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:46 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ondrej Paril at 62.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 4–1 Daniel Tomica Daniel Tomica has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:46What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Paril
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Paril
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1823 vs Tomica 1670
Paril
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 60% vs Tomica 20%
Paril
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 40% vs Tomica 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +1 · Tomica -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Paril) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomica form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 1.57 / Tomica 2.25
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Paril)+10.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12471185
Paril1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 178 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it93% 86 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it77% 140 of 181
Tomica2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 24 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeParil4wins
AwayTomica1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderParil leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil66.7%2 of 3
AwayTomican = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril3Tomica2n = 5Paril took 3 of 5
S2Paril3Tomica2n = 5Paril took 3 of 5
S3Paril2Tomica3n = 5Tomica took 3 of 5
S4Paril2Tomica2n = 4split evenly
S5Paril3Tomica0n = 3Paril took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricParilTomicaP − TBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match41.438.8+2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime468 / 904 vs 85 / 17751.8%48%468 / 904 vs 85 / 177Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParilParil 1.57/Tomica 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WFeb 24 · 15:30O. Paril—1112123D. Tomica—710100
WSep 4 · 17:30O. Paril—111137113D. Tomica—77111122
LSep 4 · 14:00O. Paril—1110851D. Tomica—91211113
WSep 3 · 17:02O. Paril—9101111123D. Tomica—111286102
WSep 3 · 14:00O. Paril—911011113D. Tomica—11611652
O. Paril10
LSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950LSep 6 · 20:00M. Biolek1.7311128113O. Paril2.007101181LSep 6 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.4471113133O. Paril2.6311411111LSep 6 · 18:30O. Paril2.0013790J. Dzida1.731511113WSep 5 · 13:29M. Biolek1.801110661O. Paril1.9171211113WSep 5 · 12:30M. Cabis1.6151113872O. Paril2.201151111113WSep 5 · 11:30O. Paril2.0011116123M. Biolek1.735511101LSep 5 · 10:30T. Zika1.8313811113O. Paril1.831111781WSep 4 · 13:30O. Paril1.941113113J. Dzida1.6851180WSep 4 · 12:30J. Dzida1.738811101O. Paril2.0011113123
D. Tomica10
WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931LAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113LAug 27 · 14:00L. Prikasky1.4491111113D. Tomica2.63118821WAug 22 · 12:58D. Tomica1.8319117113M. Vavrecka1.831751191WAug 22 · 12:00D. Tomica2.2011811173M. Vavrecka1.613119151
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