TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077551
Played Sep 5Finished
Michal Cabis
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111151311811711
Ondrej Paril
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Cabis to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Cabis above · Ondrej Paril below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Michal Cabis at 55.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Michal Cabis 31–19 Ondrej Paril Ondrej Paril has won 19 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:28What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cabis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-19 in 50
Cabis
Wrong
gap of 12 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cabis 1879 vs Paril 1901
Paril
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cabis 40% vs Paril 80%
Paril
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cabis 60% vs Paril 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cabis +1 · Paril +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Cabis) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paril form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCabis 1.61 / Paril 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Cabis)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077551
Cabis1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 142 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it92% 67 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it76% 96 of 127
Paril2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 130 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back26% 38 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCabis6wins
AwayParil4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCabis leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCabis100%5 of 5
AwayParil80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cabis5Paril5n = 10split evenly
S2Cabis6Paril4n = 10Cabis took 6 of 10
S3Cabis7Paril3n = 10Cabis took 7 of 10
S4Cabis5Paril2n = 7Cabis took 5 of 7
S5Cabis1Paril2n = 3Paril took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCabisParilC − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.934.6+5.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCabisParilBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 698 vs 500 / 96152.4%52%366 / 698 vs 500 / 961Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CabisCabis 1.61/Paril 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Cabis · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 08:00M. Cabis—111011113O. Paril—712741
WAug 29 · 11:00M. Cabis—1113133O. Paril—811110
LAug 28 · 12:00M. Cabis—611111172O. Paril—111376113
WAug 23 · 20:30M. Cabis—117911113O. Paril—71111572
WAug 20 · 12:59M. Cabis—91111113O. Paril—116681
WAug 20 · 11:00M. Cabis—1611113O. Paril—14590
LAug 19 · 12:00M. Cabis—311881O. Paril—11711113
LJul 30 · 09:30M. Cabis—981151O. Paril—11116113
WJul 30 · 08:00M. Cabis—1111113O. Paril—4940
LJul 25 · 07:30M. Cabis—811101182O. Paril—115123113
M. Cabis10
WSep 5 · 13:03M. Cabis1.5571211113T. Zika2.301110831WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cabis1.6111811113T. Zika2.20611931LSep 5 · 10:00M. Biolek1.61116119113M. Cabis2.2081161162WAug 31 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.73101040M. Cabis2.001212113LAug 31 · 16:30T. Zika2.2011411113M. Cabis1.61711491LAug 31 · 15:30M. Cabis1.837570R. Revay1.831111113WAug 31 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.73118871M. Cabis2.0071111113WAug 31 · 09:28R. Polasek1.836970M. Cabis1.831111113WAug 31 · 08:00T. Dousek1.80101180M. Cabis1.911213113WAug 31 · 07:00M. Vavrecka2.106111051M. Cabis1.6711912113
O. Paril10
LSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950LSep 6 · 20:00M. Biolek1.7311128113O. Paril2.007101181LSep 6 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.4471113133O. Paril2.6311411111LSep 6 · 18:30O. Paril2.0013790J. Dzida1.731511113WSep 5 · 13:29M. Biolek1.801110661O. Paril1.9171211113WSep 5 · 11:30O. Paril2.0011116123M. Biolek1.735511101LSep 5 · 10:30T. Zika1.8313811113O. Paril1.831111781WSep 4 · 13:30O. Paril1.941113113J. Dzida1.6851180WSep 4 · 12:30J. Dzida1.738811101O. Paril2.0011113123WSep 4 · 11:30O. Paril2.0061111123T. Dousek1.731176101
Upcoming Matches
M. Cabis
Nothing scheduled
O. Paril
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