TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070702
Played Sep 4Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111171161210––
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:12 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 74 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 65.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 17–21 Tomas Dousek Ondrej Paril has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-21 in 38
Dousek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1845 vs Dousek 1884
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 60% vs Dousek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 30% vs Dousek 70%
Dousek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +1 · Dousek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 2.00 / Dousek 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Dousek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070702
Paril2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 127 of 267
Down 0–1, comes back25% 37 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 76
Dousek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 114 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it77% 88 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil6wins
AwayDousek4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil100%4 of 4
AwayDousek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril4Dousek6n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S2Paril5Dousek5n = 10split evenly
S3Paril6Dousek4n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S4Paril4Dousek3n = 7Paril took 4 of 7
S5Paril3Dousek2n = 5Paril took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilDousekP − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.041.4−0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 956 vs 231 / 43251.9%53.5%496 / 956 vs 231 / 432Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekParil 2.00/Dousek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 10:30O. Paril—116124113T. Dousek—811101182
WAug 26 · 21:30O. Paril—11148113T. Dousek—8121181
LAug 26 · 19:00O. Paril—5890T. Dousek—1111113
WAug 22 · 13:30O. Paril—11119113T. Dousek—781131
LAug 22 · 12:30O. Paril—9590T. Dousek—1111113
LAug 21 · 21:28O. Paril—85171332T. Dousek—11111511113
WAug 21 · 18:00O. Paril—11111115133T. Dousek—137917112
WAug 19 · 10:00O. Paril—1111113T. Dousek—8790
WAug 16 · 12:00O. Paril—711129113T. Dousek—115101182
LAug 8 · 16:30O. Paril—59111192T. Dousek—111195113
O. Paril10
LSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950LSep 6 · 20:00M. Biolek1.7311128113O. Paril2.007101181LSep 6 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.4471113133O. Paril2.6311411111LSep 6 · 18:30O. Paril2.0013790J. Dzida1.731511113WSep 5 · 13:29M. Biolek1.801110661O. Paril1.9171211113WSep 5 · 12:30M. Cabis1.6151113872O. Paril2.201151111113WSep 5 · 11:30O. Paril2.0011116123M. Biolek1.735511101LSep 5 · 10:30T. Zika1.8313811113O. Paril1.831111781WSep 4 · 13:30O. Paril1.941113113J. Dzida1.6851180WSep 4 · 12:30J. Dzida1.738811101O. Paril2.0011113123
T. Dousek10
LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123LSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880LSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113
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