TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13076768
Played Sep 5Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9119111171012––
Radovan Polasek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 80 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 14–19 Radovan Polasek Tomas Dousek has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:11What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-19 in 33
Polasek
Correct
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1833 vs Polasek 1845
Polasek
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 20% vs Polasek 60%
Polasek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 50% vs Polasek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek -4 · Polasek +2
Dousek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dousek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.80 / Polasek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dousek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13076768
Dousek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 114 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it76% 88 of 116
Polasek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 173 of 341
Down 0–1, comes back29% 50 of 170
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek5wins
AwayPolasek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek50%4 of 8
AwayPolasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek8Polasek2n = 10Dousek took 8 of 10
S2Dousek3Polasek7n = 10Polasek took 7 of 10
S3Dousek5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Dousek2Polasek5n = 7Polasek took 5 of 7
S5Dousek3Polasek2n = 5Dousek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekPolasekD − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.538.6+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 435 vs 436 / 85653.1%50.9%231 / 435 vs 436 / 856Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekDousek 1.80/Polasek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 12:59T. Dousek—8880R. Polasek—1111113
LSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek—1181081R. Polasek—91112113
WAug 31 · 07:30T. Dousek—118117123R. Polasek—711911102
WAug 25 · 09:28T. Dousek—711117123R. Polasek—112511102
LAug 25 · 08:00T. Dousek—118571R. Polasek—91111113
WAug 24 · 08:00T. Dousek—118911113R. Polasek—61111372
WAug 21 · 20:30T. Dousek—1111113R. Polasek—7490
LAug 16 · 11:30T. Dousek—115511102R. Polasek—611116123
LAug 14 · 12:00T. Dousek—1110111042R. Polasek—812612113
WAug 9 · 12:30T. Dousek—1113113R. Polasek—91180
T. Dousek10
LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880LSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113LSep 4 · 11:30O. Paril2.0061111123T. Dousek1.731176101
R. Polasek10
LSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:30P. Wawrosz1.8021250R. Polasek1.911114113LSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 17:29M. Biolek1.4411671122R. Polasek2.63711115113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Polasek1.8311410101T. Zika1.8331112123LSep 5 · 15:00R. Polasek2.2011441182M. Biolek1.61411119113WSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880WSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113LSep 4 · 11:00J. Dzida1.3614119113R. Polasek3.001221191
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