TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082929
Played Sep 6Finished
Radovan Polasek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7118111171416––
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:10 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeRadovan Polasek to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 14-16
Point 85 set 4, 14-16 — our read held Radovan Polasek at 64.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 19–14 Tomas Dousek Tomas Dousek has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:10What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dousek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-14 in 33
Polasek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1857 vs Dousek 1826
Polasek
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 40% vs Dousek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 50% vs Dousek 20%
Polasek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek +1 · Dousek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 1.91 / Dousek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dousek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082929
Polasek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 174 of 343
Down 0–1, comes back30% 51 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 85
Dousek1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 115 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it76% 88 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolasek5wins
AwayDousek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDousek50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek2Dousek8n = 10Dousek took 8 of 10
S2Polasek7Dousek3n = 10Polasek took 7 of 10
S3Polasek5Dousek5n = 10split evenly
S4Polasek5Dousek2n = 7Polasek took 5 of 7
S5Polasek2Dousek3n = 5Dousek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolasekDousekP − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.639.5−0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime439 / 862 vs 233 / 44150.9%52.8%439 / 862 vs 233 / 441Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekPolasek 1.91/Dousek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek—1111113T. Dousek—8880
WSep 4 · 12:00R. Polasek—91112113T. Dousek—1181081
LAug 31 · 07:30R. Polasek—711911102T. Dousek—118117123
LAug 25 · 09:28R. Polasek—112511102T. Dousek—711117123
WAug 25 · 08:00R. Polasek—91111113T. Dousek—118571
LAug 24 · 08:00R. Polasek—61111372T. Dousek—118911113
LAug 21 · 20:30R. Polasek—7490T. Dousek—1111113
WAug 16 · 11:30R. Polasek—611116123T. Dousek—115511102
WAug 14 · 12:00R. Polasek—812612113T. Dousek—1110111042
LAug 9 · 12:30R. Polasek—91180T. Dousek—1113113
R. Polasek10
LSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113WSep 6 · 19:30P. Wawrosz1.8021250R. Polasek1.911114113LSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 17:29M. Biolek1.4411671122R. Polasek2.63711115113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Polasek1.8311410101T. Zika1.8331112123LSep 5 · 15:00R. Polasek2.2011441182M. Biolek1.61411119113WSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123WSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880WSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113LSep 4 · 11:00J. Dzida1.3614119113R. Polasek3.001221191
T. Dousek10
LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123LSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880LSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113LSep 4 · 11:30O. Paril2.0061111123T. Dousek1.731176101
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