TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081983
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1141210711911811
Pavel Wawrosz
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Wawrosz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Pavel Wawrosz below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Wawrosz at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 8–5 Pavel Wawrosz Pavel Wawrosz has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:00What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Dousek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1824 vs Wawrosz 1809
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 20% vs Wawrosz 60%
Wawrosz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 30% vs Wawrosz 60%
Wawrosz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek -2 · Wawrosz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wawrosz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.61 / Wawrosz 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Dousek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081983
Dousek1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 115 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it76% 88 of 116
Wawrosz2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 51 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back29% 14 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek7wins
AwayWawrosz3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek71.4%5 of 7
AwayWawrosz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek7Wawrosz3n = 10Dousek took 7 of 10
S2Dousek5Wawrosz5n = 10split evenly
S3Dousek8Wawrosz2n = 10Dousek took 8 of 10
S4Dousek6Wawrosz1n = 7Dousek took 6 of 7
S5Dousek1Wawrosz3n = 4Wawrosz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekWawroszD − WBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.036.8+6.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekWawroszBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 439 vs 201 / 39752.9%50.6%232 / 439 vs 201 / 397Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekDousek 1.61/Wawrosz 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wawrosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 20:30T. Dousek—91211113P. Wawrosz—1110741
WAug 25 · 06:00T. Dousek—1214113P. Wawrosz—101270
LAug 24 · 06:00T. Dousek—51113982P. Wawrosz—1141111113
WAug 17 · 16:58T. Dousek—981111113P. Wawrosz—11114862
WAug 17 · 16:30T. Dousek—1111113P. Wawrosz—8750
LAug 8 · 17:00T. Dousek—139711112P. Wawrosz—1111116133
LAug 8 · 14:30T. Dousek—111291162P. Wawrosz—714119113
WJul 21 · 12:00T. Dousek—131111133P. Wawrosz—11136111
WJul 5 · 11:30T. Dousek—1111113P. Wawrosz—7890
WJul 3 · 12:00T. Dousek—11711113P. Wawrosz—911641
T. Dousek10
LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123LSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880LSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113LSep 4 · 11:30O. Paril2.0061111123T. Dousek1.731176101
P. Wawrosz10
WSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113LSep 6 · 19:30P. Wawrosz1.8021250R. Polasek1.911114113LSep 5 · 09:30M. Vavrecka1.781612113P. Wawrosz1.93141050LSep 5 · 08:30P. Wawrosz1.73771161L. Prikasky2.0011115113WSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692WSep 5 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.7312711852P. Wawrosz2.001011211113WSep 4 · 13:30R. Revay1.908460P. Wawrosz1.801111113WSep 4 · 12:30L. Prikasky2.00771271P. Wawrosz1.73111110113LSep 4 · 11:30P. Wawrosz1.8011711992R. Revay1.91611411113
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