TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082928
Played Sep 6Finished
Michal Vavrecka
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119611811––
Tomas Dousek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:10 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Vavrecka to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Vavrecka above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Michal Vavrecka at 60.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vavrecka 15–19 Tomas Dousek Michal Vavrecka has won 15 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dousek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-19 in 34
Dousek
Correct
gap of 4 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavrecka 1832 vs Dousek 1813
Vavrecka
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavrecka 80% vs Dousek 20%
Vavrecka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavrecka 70% vs Dousek 20%
Vavrecka
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavrecka +4 · Dousek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavrecka 1.91 / Dousek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dousek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082928
Vavrecka1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 176 of 390
Down 0–1, comes back27% 57 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 102
Dousek1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 115 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it76% 88 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavrecka5wins
AwayDousek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavrecka80%4 of 5
AwayDousek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavrecka5Dousek5n = 10split evenly
S2Vavrecka4Dousek6n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S3Vavrecka5Dousek5n = 10split evenly
S4Vavrecka3Dousek2n = 5Vavrecka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavreckaDousekV − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.735.0−0.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavreckaDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime1010 / 2006 vs 232 / 44050.4%52.7%1010 / 2006 vs 232 / 440Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekVavrecka 1.91/Dousek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 09:00M. Vavrecka—17911113T. Dousek—1511741
WAug 31 · 06:00M. Vavrecka—1111113T. Dousek—7780
LAug 26 · 13:30M. Vavrecka—9640T. Dousek—1111113
WAug 26 · 11:00M. Vavrecka—1011119113T. Dousek—12841172
LAug 25 · 07:30M. Vavrecka—7211131T. Dousek—11116153
WAug 24 · 12:30M. Vavrecka—1111113T. Dousek—7790
LAug 22 · 11:00M. Vavrecka—65100T. Dousek—1111123
LAug 13 · 13:30M. Vavrecka—11951192T. Dousek—711119113
LAug 13 · 10:30M. Vavrecka—6890T. Dousek—1111113
WAug 6 · 11:00M. Vavrecka—11144113T. Dousek—8121131
M. Vavrecka10
WSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113WSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 09:30M. Vavrecka1.781612113P. Wawrosz1.93141050WSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142WSep 5 · 07:30L. Prikasky1.8391180M. Vavrecka1.831113113LSep 5 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.7312711852P. Wawrosz2.001011211113WAug 31 · 09:00M. Vavrecka1.8317911113T. Dousek1.831511741LAug 31 · 08:30M. Vavrecka2.001251181R. Polasek1.7314117113LAug 31 · 07:00M. Vavrecka2.106111051M. Cabis1.6711912113
T. Dousek10
LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123LSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880LSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113LAug 31 · 09:00M. Vavrecka1.8317911113T. Dousek1.831511741
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