TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13089316
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
1.46
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210711911211––
Pavel Wawrosz
Away
2.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Pavel Wawrosz below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 73 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Tomas Dousek at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 8–6 Pavel Wawrosz Pavel Wawrosz has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (62%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Dousek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1838 vs Wawrosz 1801
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 40% vs Wawrosz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 30% vs Wawrosz 60%
Wawrosz
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek +2 · Wawrosz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Dousek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (40%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.46 / Wawrosz 2.36
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Dousek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13089316
Dousek1.46
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 115 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it76% 88 of 116
Wawrosz2.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 51 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back29% 14 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek6wins
AwayWawrosz4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek57.1%4 of 7
AwayWawrosz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek7Wawrosz3n = 10Dousek took 7 of 10
S2Dousek6Wawrosz4n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S3Dousek7Wawrosz3n = 10Dousek took 7 of 10
S4Dousek5Wawrosz2n = 7Dousek took 5 of 7
S5Dousek1Wawrosz4n = 5Wawrosz took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekWawroszD − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.738.5+5.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekWawroszBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 442 vs 203 / 40052.9%50.8%234 / 442 vs 203 / 400Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousekDousek 1.46/Wawrosz 2.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wawrosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek—11127982P. Wawrosz—4101111113
WAug 26 · 20:30T. Dousek—91211113P. Wawrosz—1110741
WAug 25 · 06:00T. Dousek—1214113P. Wawrosz—101270
LAug 24 · 06:00T. Dousek—51113982P. Wawrosz—1141111113
WAug 17 · 16:58T. Dousek—981111113P. Wawrosz—11114862
WAug 17 · 16:30T. Dousek—1111113P. Wawrosz—8750
LAug 8 · 17:00T. Dousek—139711112P. Wawrosz—1111116133
LAug 8 · 14:30T. Dousek—111291162P. Wawrosz—714119113
WJul 21 · 12:00T. Dousek—131111133P. Wawrosz—11136111
WJul 5 · 11:30T. Dousek—1111113P. Wawrosz—7890
T. Dousek10
WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123LSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880LSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113LSep 4 · 11:30O. Paril2.0061111123T. Dousek1.731176101
P. Wawrosz10
WSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113LSep 6 · 19:30P. Wawrosz1.8021250R. Polasek1.911114113WSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 09:30M. Vavrecka1.781612113P. Wawrosz1.93141050LSep 5 · 08:30P. Wawrosz1.73771161L. Prikasky2.0011115113WSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692WSep 5 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.7312711852P. Wawrosz2.001011211113WSep 4 · 13:30R. Revay1.908460P. Wawrosz1.801111113WSep 4 · 12:30L. Prikasky2.00771271P. Wawrosz1.73111110113LSep 4 · 11:30P. Wawrosz1.8011711992R. Revay1.91611411113
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