TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081729
Played Sep 5Finished
Michal Vavrecka
Home
1.78
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
16141210115––––
Pavel Wawrosz
Away
1.93
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:00 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timePavel Wawrosz to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Vavrecka above · Pavel Wawrosz below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 68 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Pavel Wawrosz at 55.5%
68 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vavrecka 24–30 Pavel Wawrosz Michal Vavrecka has won 24 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:00What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Vavrecka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-30 in 54
Wawrosz
Wrong
gap of 6 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavrecka 1829 vs Wawrosz 1802
Vavrecka
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavrecka 60% vs Wawrosz 80%
Wawrosz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavrecka 50% vs Wawrosz 70%
Wawrosz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavrecka +2 · Wawrosz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vavrecka) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wawrosz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavrecka 1.78 / Wawrosz 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vavrecka)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081729
Vavrecka1.78
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 175 of 322
Up 2–0, closes it88% 72 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it76% 124 of 164
Wawrosz1.93
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 50 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavrecka6wins
AwayWawrosz4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVavrecka leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavrecka57.1%4 of 7
AwayWawrosz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavrecka7Wawrosz3n = 10Vavrecka took 7 of 10
S2Vavrecka5Wawrosz5n = 10split evenly
S3Vavrecka7Wawrosz3n = 10Vavrecka took 7 of 10
S4Vavrecka5Wawrosz2n = 7Vavrecka took 5 of 7
S5Vavrecka2Wawrosz4n = 6Wawrosz took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavreckaWawroszV − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.939.2+1.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavreckaWawroszBasisWin rate · lifetime1008 / 2004 vs 201 / 39650.3%50.8%1008 / 2004 vs 201 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavreckaVavrecka 1.78/Wawrosz 1.93
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vavrecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vavrecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 06:00M. Vavrecka—12711852P. Wawrosz—1011211113
LAug 25 · 08:58M. Vavrecka—41112842P. Wawrosz—1181011113
WAug 25 · 08:30M. Vavrecka—11311113P. Wawrosz—911681
WAug 23 · 16:00M. Vavrecka—1112113P. Wawrosz—41090
LAug 19 · 06:30M. Vavrecka—13591192P. Wawrosz—1111118113
WAug 17 · 13:30M. Vavrecka—1111113P. Wawrosz—6890
WAug 17 · 10:30M. Vavrecka—6111011153P. Wawrosz—115128132
WAug 15 · 08:00M. Vavrecka—1111113P. Wawrosz—7460
LAug 12 · 15:00M. Vavrecka—11981222P. Wawrosz—9111110113
WAug 9 · 12:59M. Vavrecka—591111133P. Wawrosz—111176112
M. Vavrecka10
WSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113LSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113WSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Vavrecka1.57135411163M. Navedla2.251111117142WSep 5 · 07:30L. Prikasky1.8391180M. Vavrecka1.831113113LSep 5 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.7312711852P. Wawrosz2.001011211113WAug 31 · 09:00M. Vavrecka1.8317911113T. Dousek1.831511741LAug 31 · 08:30M. Vavrecka2.001251181R. Polasek1.7314117113LAug 31 · 07:00M. Vavrecka2.106111051M. Cabis1.6711912113
P. Wawrosz10
WSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:30M. Vavrecka1.80117761P. Wawrosz1.9191111113LSep 6 · 19:30P. Wawrosz1.8021250R. Polasek1.911114113WSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 08:30P. Wawrosz1.73771161L. Prikasky2.0011115113WSep 5 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.73881111113M. Navedla2.0011117692WSep 5 · 06:00M. Vavrecka1.7312711852P. Wawrosz2.001011211113WSep 4 · 13:30R. Revay1.908460P. Wawrosz1.801111113WSep 4 · 12:30L. Prikasky2.00771271P. Wawrosz1.73111110113LSep 4 · 11:30P. Wawrosz1.8011711992R. Revay1.91611411113
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