TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071028
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Dzida
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412112911119––
Radovan Polasek
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJan Dzida to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Dzida above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jan Dzida at 56.2%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jan Dzida 4–3 Radovan Polasek Radovan Polasek has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:17What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1961 vs Polasek 1825
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 60% vs Polasek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 70% vs Polasek 50%
Dzida
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +3 · Polasek -1
Dzida
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polasek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.36 / Polasek 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Dzida)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071028
Dzida1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 135 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it95% 59 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it73% 98 of 134
Polasek3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 169 of 334
Down 0–1, comes back29% 48 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeDzida4wins
AwayPolasek3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderDzida leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzida66.7%2 of 3
AwayPolasek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida3Polasek4n = 7Polasek took 4 of 7
S2Dzida4Polasek3n = 7Dzida took 4 of 7
S3Dzida4Polasek3n = 7Dzida took 4 of 7
S4Dzida5Polasek2n = 7Dzida took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home457%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricDzidaPolasekD − PBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match42.436.0+6.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 342 vs 434 / 85459.4%50.8%203 / 342 vs 434 / 854Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.36/Polasek 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 24 · 06:30J. Dzida—1161191R. Polasek—31113113
WJun 9 · 17:30J. Dzida—11611113R. Polasek—811961
WJun 9 · 15:00J. Dzida—11711113R. Polasek—411631
WJun 2 · 21:00J. Dzida—91111113R. Polasek—116581
LJun 2 · 19:00J. Dzida—8111114122R. Polasek—1171312143
WMay 8 · 09:30J. Dzida—71111113R. Polasek—112541
LMay 8 · 08:30J. Dzida—91211111R. Polasek—111013133
J. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.6411621582J. Dzida2.019111911113LSep 6 · 20:30D. Opanasiuk1.8081212113J. Dzida1.9111101081WSep 6 · 19:30J. Dzida1.8011118113M. Biolek1.91991151WSep 6 · 18:30O. Paril2.0013790J. Dzida1.731511113LSep 4 · 13:30O. Paril1.941113113J. Dzida1.6851180LSep 4 · 12:30J. Dzida1.738811101O. Paril2.0011113123WSep 4 · 10:00T. Dousek2.7551181362J. Dzida1.401141111113WSep 1 · 16:59J. Dzida1.91311118113O. Paril1.8011881192WSep 1 · 16:30J. Dzida1.671111113O. Paril2.109850LSep 1 · 15:00J. Dzida1.40461171T. Zika2.7511115113
R. Polasek10
LSep 6 · 21:00R. Polasek1.73111312882M. Vavrecka2.006151011113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:30P. Wawrosz1.8021250R. Polasek1.911114113LSep 6 · 18:00R. Polasek1.7381111862M. Vavrecka2.00119611113WSep 5 · 17:29M. Biolek1.4411671122R. Polasek2.63711115113LSep 5 · 16:30R. Polasek1.8311410101T. Zika1.8331112123LSep 5 · 15:00R. Polasek2.2011441182M. Biolek1.61411119113WSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123WSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880WSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113
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