TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13046544
Played Aug 31Finished
Jan Szotkowski
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117811811711––
Michal Cabis
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:37 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Michal Cabis below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jan Szotkowski at 58.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jan Szotkowski 14–14 Michal Cabis Dead even across their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:37What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Szotkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-14 in 28
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotkowski 1878 vs Cabis 1869
Szotkowski
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotkowski 80% vs Cabis 60%
Szotkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotkowski 60% vs Cabis 40%
Szotkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotkowski +3 · Cabis +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Szotkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotkowski 1.73 / Cabis 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Szotkowski)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13046544
Szotkowski1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 136 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it96% 66 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it73% 104 of 142
Cabis2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 86 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back33% 32 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotkowski7wins
AwayCabis3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotkowski80%4 of 5
AwayCabis40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotkowski5Cabis5n = 10split evenly
S2Szotkowski7Cabis3n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S3Szotkowski7Cabis3n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S4Szotkowski5Cabis2n = 7Szotkowski took 5 of 7
S5Szotkowski2Cabis2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotkowskiCabisS − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.236.5+4.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotkowskiCabisBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 818 vs 363 / 69652.2%52.2%427 / 818 vs 363 / 696Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiSzotkowski 1.73/Cabis 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cabis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 11:00J. Szotkowski—101111113M. Cabis—127791
WAug 14 · 08:00J. Szotkowski—1111143M. Cabis—59120
WAug 5 · 12:00J. Szotkowski—116811113M. Cabis—71111592
WJul 9 · 15:00J. Szotkowski—1111113M. Cabis—5490
WJul 2 · 17:00J. Szotkowski—911911113M. Cabis—11711682
WJul 2 · 14:30J. Szotkowski—1111113M. Cabis—6560
LJul 2 · 10:00J. Szotkowski—871191M. Cabis—11119113
WJun 25 · 16:00J. Szotkowski—81111153M. Cabis—1198131
LJun 3 · 13:30J. Szotkowski—713116102M. Cabis—1111811123
LJun 3 · 10:00J. Szotkowski—11381192M. Cabis—711117113
J. Szotkowski10
LSep 3 · 12:58T. Zika1.911112113J. Szotkowski1.8071090LSep 3 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831112113J. Szotkowski1.8361090LSep 3 · 11:00M. Sedlacek1.801111113J. Szotkowski1.919660WSep 3 · 10:30J. Szotkowski1.831111113T. Zika1.837730WSep 3 · 09:28J. Szotkowski1.571211113R. Polasek2.2510890WSep 3 · 08:30J. Szotkowski1.671111113R. Revay2.108590WSep 3 · 07:00J. Szotkowski1.671111113R. Polasek2.106260WSep 3 · 06:00T. Zika1.733820J. Szotkowski2.001111113LSep 2 · 13:28T. Dousek1.831111113J. Szotkowski1.838890LSep 2 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.7311711113J. Szotkowski2.00611631
M. Cabis10
WSep 5 · 13:03M. Cabis1.5571211113T. Zika2.301110831LSep 5 · 12:30M. Cabis1.6151113872O. Paril2.201151111113WSep 5 · 11:00M. Cabis1.6111811113T. Zika2.20611931LSep 5 · 10:00M. Biolek1.61116119113M. Cabis2.2081161162WAug 31 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.73101040M. Cabis2.001212113LAug 31 · 16:30T. Zika2.2011411113M. Cabis1.61711491LAug 31 · 15:30M. Cabis1.837570R. Revay1.831111113WAug 31 · 09:28R. Polasek1.836970M. Cabis1.831111113WAug 31 · 08:00T. Dousek1.80101180M. Cabis1.911213113WAug 31 · 07:00M. Vavrecka2.106111051M. Cabis1.6711912113
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