TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13063658
Played Sep 3Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210119––––
Jan Szotkowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 59 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jan Szotkowski at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 15–15 Jan Szotkowski Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Szotkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1873 vs Szotkowski 1936
Szotkowski
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 60% vs Szotkowski 80%
Szotkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 60% vs Szotkowski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek +1 · Szotkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szotkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.83 / Szotkowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Szotkowski)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13063658
Dousek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Szotkowski1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek5wins
AwaySzotkowski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek100%4 of 4
AwaySzotkowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S2Dousek7Szotkowski3n = 10Dousek took 7 of 10
S3Dousek4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S4Dousek8Szotkowski0n = 8Dousek took 8 of 8
S5Dousek0Szotkowski4n = 4Szotkowski took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekSzotkowskiD − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.038.3+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 429 vs 437 / 83653.4%52.3%229 / 429 vs 437 / 836Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiDousek 1.83/Szotkowski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 13:28T. Dousek—1111113J. Szotkowski—8890
LSep 2 · 11:00T. Dousek—11181162J. Szotkowski—117119113
WAug 3 · 11:00T. Dousek—11118113J. Szotkowski—261191
LJul 30 · 11:00T. Dousek—101191142J. Szotkowski—126115113
WJul 14 · 15:30T. Dousek—81111113J. Szotkowski—117771
LJul 12 · 10:30T. Dousek—4870J. Szotkowski—1111113
LJun 29 · 13:30T. Dousek—1111131192J. Szotkowski—138155113
WJun 29 · 11:00T. Dousek—12911113J. Szotkowski—1011861
LJun 25 · 12:58T. Dousek—711411142J. Szotkowski—114119163
WJun 25 · 12:00T. Dousek—11611113J. Szotkowski—711871
T. Dousek10
LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123LSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880LSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113
J. Szotkowski10
LSep 3 · 12:58T. Zika1.911112113J. Szotkowski1.8071090LSep 3 · 11:00M. Sedlacek1.801111113J. Szotkowski1.919660WSep 3 · 10:30J. Szotkowski1.831111113T. Zika1.837730WSep 3 · 09:28J. Szotkowski1.571211113R. Polasek2.2510890WSep 3 · 08:30J. Szotkowski1.671111113R. Revay2.108590WSep 3 · 07:00J. Szotkowski1.671111113R. Polasek2.106260WSep 3 · 06:00T. Zika1.733820J. Szotkowski2.001111113LSep 2 · 13:28T. Dousek1.831111113J. Szotkowski1.838890LSep 2 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.7311711113J. Szotkowski2.00611631WSep 2 · 11:00T. Dousek1.8311181162J. Szotkowski1.83117119113
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