TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13063650
Played Sep 3Finished
Michael Sedlacek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116116––––
Jan Szotkowski
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichael Sedlacek above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Jan Szotkowski at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Michael Sedlacek 54–44 Jan Szotkowski Jan Szotkowski has won 44 of their 98 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:11What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sedlacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-44 in 98
Sedlacek
Correct
gap of 10 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sedlacek 1875 vs Szotkowski 1952
Szotkowski
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sedlacek 60% vs Szotkowski 100%
Szotkowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sedlacek 40% vs Szotkowski 70%
Szotkowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sedlacek +3 · Szotkowski +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szotkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSedlacek 1.80 / Szotkowski 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Szotkowski)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13063650
Sedlacek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 121 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it80% 83 of 104
Szotkowski1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog52% won 78 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSedlacek5wins
AwaySzotkowski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSedlacek100%3 of 3
AwaySzotkowski71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sedlacek3Szotkowski7n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S2Sedlacek5Szotkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Sedlacek4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S4Sedlacek6Szotkowski2n = 8Sedlacek took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSedlacekSzotkowskiSedlacek − SzotkowskiBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.837.9+0.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSedlacekSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 525 vs 437 / 83561.5%52.3%323 / 525 vs 437 / 835Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.840.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiSedlacek 1.80/Szotkowski 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sedlacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 12:00M. Sedlacek—11711113J. Szotkowski—611631
LAug 18 · 13:30M. Sedlacek—9950J. Szotkowski—1111113
LAug 18 · 10:00M. Sedlacek—831181J. Szotkowski—11116113
WAug 11 · 13:28M. Sedlacek—121111113J. Szotkowski—143951
LAug 11 · 12:00M. Sedlacek—10980J. Szotkowski—1211113
WAug 10 · 13:28M. Sedlacek—1111911113J. Szotkowski—13711742
LAug 10 · 12:00M. Sedlacek—611101172J. Szotkowski—118127113
WAug 5 · 12:58M. Sedlacek—11168173J. Szotkowski—91411151
WAug 5 · 11:00M. Sedlacek—11117113J. Szotkowski—771191
LAug 3 · 12:00M. Sedlacek—861181J. Szotkowski—11119113
M. Sedlacek10
LSep 3 · 13:28T. Dousek1.801111123M. Sedlacek1.9146100LSep 3 · 12:30M. Sedlacek1.4081111842T. Zika2.75114711113WSep 3 · 10:00T. Dousek2.0061181192M. Sedlacek1.73118113113WSep 2 · 12:59T. Zika2.2011770M. Sedlacek1.611311113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.7311711113J. Szotkowski2.00611631LSep 2 · 11:30T. Zika2.631111123M. Sedlacek1.4446100LSep 2 · 10:00M. Sedlacek1.67511961T. Dousek2.1011911113LSep 1 · 12:58T. Dousek2.251111113M. Sedlacek1.577860LSep 1 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.73851171T. Dousek2.0011117113LSep 1 · 11:30O. Paril2.20811911113M. Sedlacek1.6111311742
J. Szotkowski10
LSep 3 · 12:58T. Zika1.911112113J. Szotkowski1.8071090LSep 3 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831112113J. Szotkowski1.8361090WSep 3 · 10:30J. Szotkowski1.831111113T. Zika1.837730WSep 3 · 09:28J. Szotkowski1.571211113R. Polasek2.2510890WSep 3 · 08:30J. Szotkowski1.671111113R. Revay2.108590WSep 3 · 07:00J. Szotkowski1.671111113R. Polasek2.106260WSep 3 · 06:00T. Zika1.733820J. Szotkowski2.001111113LSep 2 · 13:28T. Dousek1.831111113J. Szotkowski1.838890LSep 2 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.7311711113J. Szotkowski2.00611631WSep 2 · 11:00T. Dousek1.8311181162J. Szotkowski1.83117119113
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