TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13063652
Played Sep 3Finished
Tomas Dousek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611118811113911
Michael Sedlacek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichael Sedlacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Michael Sedlacek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Michael Sedlacek at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 11–19 Michael Sedlacek Tomas Dousek has won 11 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:11What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sedlacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-19 in 30
Sedlacek
Correct
gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1872 vs Sedlacek 1864
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 80% vs Sedlacek 40%
Dousek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 50% vs Sedlacek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek +2 · Sedlacek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sedlacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sedlacek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 2.00 / Sedlacek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sedlacek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13063652
Dousek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 41 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back33% 16 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Sedlacek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 121 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it80% 83 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek6wins
AwaySedlacek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek80%4 of 5
AwaySedlacek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek5Sedlacek5n = 10split evenly
S2Dousek7Sedlacek3n = 10Dousek took 7 of 10
S3Dousek6Sedlacek4n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S4Dousek6Sedlacek3n = 9Dousek took 6 of 9
S5Dousek1Sedlacek3n = 4Sedlacek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekSedlacekD − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.739.9+3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekSedlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 427 vs 322 / 52453.4%61.5%228 / 427 vs 322 / 524Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SedlacekDousek 2.00/Sedlacek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Sedlacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sedlacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 10:00T. Dousek—11911113M. Sedlacek—511961
WSep 1 · 12:58T. Dousek—1111113M. Sedlacek—7860
WSep 1 · 12:00T. Dousek—11117113M. Sedlacek—851171
LAug 12 · 13:30T. Dousek—91111101M. Sedlacek—11913123
WAug 12 · 10:00T. Dousek—129118113M. Sedlacek—101181192
WAug 3 · 13:29T. Dousek—91111113M. Sedlacek—119891
LAug 3 · 10:00T. Dousek—1014912102M. Sedlacek—12121110123
LJul 30 · 13:30T. Dousek—41111792M. Sedlacek—114511113
WJul 30 · 12:00T. Dousek—71112113M. Sedlacek—1181091
LJul 15 · 10:00T. Dousek—11891392M. Sedlacek—4111111113
T. Dousek10
LSep 6 · 21:30T. Dousek1.46127921P. Wawrosz2.36101111113WSep 6 · 20:00R. Polasek1.917811141T. Dousek1.8011117163WSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka1.91711681T. Dousek1.8011911113LSep 6 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6111127982P. Wawrosz2.204101111113LSep 5 · 16:58T. Dousek1.7361181182T. Zika2.00117117113LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek2.5011911842M. Biolek1.50711811113WSep 5 · 15:30T. Zika2.101112111182T. Dousek1.67814913113LSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek1.809911101R. Polasek1.9111117123LSep 4 · 12:59R. Polasek1.911111113T. Dousek1.808880LSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek1.831181081R. Polasek1.8391112113
M. Sedlacek10
LSep 3 · 13:28T. Dousek1.801111123M. Sedlacek1.9146100LSep 3 · 12:30M. Sedlacek1.4081111842T. Zika2.75114711113WSep 3 · 11:00M. Sedlacek1.801111113J. Szotkowski1.919660WSep 2 · 12:59T. Zika2.2011770M. Sedlacek1.611311113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.7311711113J. Szotkowski2.00611631LSep 2 · 11:30T. Zika2.631111123M. Sedlacek1.4446100LSep 2 · 10:00M. Sedlacek1.67511961T. Dousek2.1011911113LSep 1 · 12:58T. Dousek2.251111113M. Sedlacek1.577860LSep 1 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.73851171T. Dousek2.0011117113LSep 1 · 11:30O. Paril2.20811911113M. Sedlacek1.6111311742
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