TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052635
Played Sep 1Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811113911117114
Michael Sedlacek
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMichael Sedlacek to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Michael Sedlacek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 86 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Michael Sedlacek at 58.9%
86 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 33–45 Michael Sedlacek Ondrej Paril has won 33 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:45What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sedlacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-45 in 78
Sedlacek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1925 vs Sedlacek 1904
Paril
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 100% vs Sedlacek 60%
Paril
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 80% vs Sedlacek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +5 · Sedlacek +1
Paril
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Sedlacek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paril form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 2.20 / Sedlacek 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Sedlacek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13052635
Paril2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 125 of 264
Down 0–1, comes back25% 36 of 144
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 74
Sedlacek1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 120 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it80% 82 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil2wins
AwaySedlacek8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSedlacek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePariln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySedlacek88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril1Sedlacek9n = 10Sedlacek took 9 of 10
S2Paril5Sedlacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Paril5Sedlacek5n = 10split evenly
S4Paril2Sedlacek6n = 8Sedlacek took 6 of 8
S5Paril1Sedlacek2n = 3Sedlacek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilSedlacekP − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.442.8−6.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilSedlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 949 vs 320 / 51852.2%61.8%495 / 949 vs 320 / 518Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SedlacekParil 2.20/Sedlacek 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Sedlacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 10:30O. Paril—114100M. Sedlacek—1116123
LJul 15 · 12:00O. Paril—911101692M. Sedlacek—1191214113
LJul 14 · 10:30O. Paril—571151M. Sedlacek—11119113
WJul 3 · 13:30O. Paril—81211113M. Sedlacek—1110491
WJul 3 · 11:30O. Paril—111196113M. Sedlacek—97111142
LJun 29 · 13:00O. Paril—911871M. Sedlacek—11911113
LJun 29 · 11:30O. Paril—41111882M. Sedlacek—119611113
LJun 28 · 17:30O. Paril—6313101M. Sedlacek—111111123
LJun 28 · 15:00O. Paril—851291M. Sedlacek—111110113
LJun 28 · 11:30O. Paril—65120M. Sedlacek—1111143
O. Paril10
LSep 6 · 20:58M. Biolek1.801211113O. Paril1.9110950LSep 6 · 20:00M. Biolek1.7311128113O. Paril2.007101181LSep 6 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.4471113133O. Paril2.6311411111LSep 6 · 18:30O. Paril2.0013790J. Dzida1.731511113WSep 5 · 13:29M. Biolek1.801110661O. Paril1.9171211113WSep 5 · 12:30M. Cabis1.6151113872O. Paril2.201151111113WSep 5 · 11:30O. Paril2.0011116123M. Biolek1.735511101LSep 5 · 10:30T. Zika1.8313811113O. Paril1.831111781WSep 4 · 13:30O. Paril1.941113113J. Dzida1.6851180WSep 4 · 12:30J. Dzida1.738811101O. Paril2.0011113123
M. Sedlacek10
LSep 3 · 13:28T. Dousek1.801111123M. Sedlacek1.9146100LSep 3 · 12:30M. Sedlacek1.4081111842T. Zika2.75114711113WSep 3 · 11:00M. Sedlacek1.801111113J. Szotkowski1.919660WSep 3 · 10:00T. Dousek2.0061181192M. Sedlacek1.73118113113WSep 2 · 12:59T. Zika2.2011770M. Sedlacek1.611311113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.7311711113J. Szotkowski2.00611631LSep 2 · 11:30T. Zika2.631111123M. Sedlacek1.4446100LSep 2 · 10:00M. Sedlacek1.67511961T. Dousek2.1011911113LSep 1 · 12:58T. Dousek2.251111113M. Sedlacek1.577860LSep 1 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.73851171T. Dousek2.0011117113
Upcoming Matches
O. Paril
M. Sedlacek
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