TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020957
Played Aug 27Finished
Daniel Tomica
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611115119113––
Lukas Velebil
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Velebil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDaniel Tomica above · Lukas Velebil below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 67 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Lukas Velebil at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tomica 3–3 Lukas Velebil Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Velebil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tomica 1690 vs Velebil 1713
Velebil
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tomica 40% vs Velebil 60%
Velebil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tomica 30% vs Velebil 50%
Velebil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tomica -2 · Velebil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Velebil) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTomica 2.25 / Velebil 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Velebil)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020957
Tomica2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 24 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back20% 6 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Velebil1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 22 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTomica3wins
AwayVelebil3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTomica33.3%1 of 3
AwayVelebil33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tomica3Velebil3n = 6split evenly
S2Tomica5Velebil1n = 6Tomica took 5 of 6
S3Tomica3Velebil3n = 6split evenly
S4Tomica2Velebil3n = 5Velebil took 3 of 5
S5Tomica1Velebil2n = 3Velebil took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricTomicaVelebilT − VBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.839.2+1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTomicaVelebilBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 178 vs 42 / 7747.2%54.6%84 / 178 vs 42 / 77Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelebilTomica 2.25/Velebil 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Velebil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tomica won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WMay 21 · 17:30D. Tomica—1111113L. Velebil—5870
WMay 21 · 14:00D. Tomica—31211113L. Velebil—1110091
LMar 21 · 18:31D. Tomica—5119101L. Velebil—11911123
WMar 21 · 15:30D. Tomica—671111113L. Velebil—11118872
LFeb 12 · 18:26D. Tomica—14118592L. Velebil—1261111113
LFeb 12 · 16:00D. Tomica—111110962L. Velebil—571211113
D. Tomica10
WSep 4 · 17:03D. Tomica1.8513118113M. Navedla1.851131151LSep 4 · 16:30D. Tomica2.75117861L. Prikasky1.4091111113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Tomica1.7311811113M. Navedla2.00711841LSep 4 · 14:00M. Skotnica1.83111182113D. Tomica1.8363111142WAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113LAug 27 · 15:00D. Tomica2.257450M. Grundel1.571111113LAug 27 · 14:00L. Prikasky1.4491111113D. Tomica2.63118821WAug 22 · 12:58D. Tomica1.8319117113M. Vavrecka1.831751191WAug 22 · 12:00D. Tomica2.2011811173M. Vavrecka1.613119151LAug 22 · 11:30O. Paril1.571111113D. Tomica2.258490
L. Velebil10
WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:00L. Kern2.2039100L. Velebil1.611111123WSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113WSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113WAug 27 · 15:30L. Velebil1.911111113L. Prikasky1.804890
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