TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065600
Played Sep 3Finished
Lukas Velebil
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181195118111012
Radim Urbaniec
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:18 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Velebil to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Velebil above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 96 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Lukas Velebil at 70.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Velebil 3–0 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:18What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Velebil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Velebil
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Velebil 1734 vs Urbaniec 1650
Velebil
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Velebil 60% vs Urbaniec 40%
Velebil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Velebil 50% vs Urbaniec 30%
Velebil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Velebil -2 · Urbaniec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Velebil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velebil form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVelebil 1.33 / Urbaniec 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Velebil)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065600
Velebil1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 26 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Urbaniec3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 191 of 469
Down 0–1, comes back21% 55 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVelebil3wins
AwayUrbaniec0wins
Velebil leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Velebil2Urbaniec1n = 3Velebil took 2 of 3
S2Velebil3Urbaniec0n = 3Velebil took 3 of 3
S3Velebil3Urbaniec0n = 3Velebil took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVelebilUrbaniecV − UBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.022.0+14.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVelebilUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 85 vs 605 / 119054.1%50.8%46 / 85 vs 605 / 1190Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VelebilVelebil 1.33/Urbaniec 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.9%
Velebil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WMar 25 · 22:00L. Velebil—91111113R. Urbaniec—113741
WMar 25 · 20:00L. Velebil—1111113R. Urbaniec—4870
WMar 18 · 20:00L. Velebil—1111113R. Urbaniec—7780
L. Velebil10
WSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 15:00L. Velebil1.838101191M. Skotnica1.8311129113LSep 3 · 14:00M. Grundel1.831113113L. Velebil1.8371160WSep 1 · 17:29L. Velebil1.7311119113F. Nadymacek2.00671191WSep 1 · 16:00L. Kern2.2039100L. Velebil1.611111123WSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113WSep 1 · 14:30L. Velebil1.7311911113F. Nadymacek2.00911881LAug 27 · 17:01L. Velebil1.60111131132D. Tomica2.15671113113LAug 27 · 16:30D. Tomica2.2561111113L. Velebil1.57115931WAug 27 · 15:30L. Velebil1.911111113L. Prikasky1.804890
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113WSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113LSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113LSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WSep 2 · 21:00R. Urbaniec1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.205660WSep 2 · 20:00R. Urbaniec1.44711118113M. Chalupa2.6311971192LSep 1 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.7541141192L. Velebil1.25118117113
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