TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059170
Played Sep 2Finished
Radim Urbaniec
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711119117811119
Michal Chalupa
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:03 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeRadim Urbaniec to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Radim Urbaniec at 55.2%
95 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 13–2 Michal Chalupa Michal Chalupa has won 2 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:03What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Urbaniec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-2 in 15
Urbaniec
Correct
gap of 11 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1657 vs Chalupa 1656
Urbaniec
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 0% vs Chalupa 80%
Chalupa
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 30% vs Chalupa 80%
Chalupa
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec -5 · Chalupa +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Urbaniec) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 1.44 / Chalupa 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Urbaniec)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059170
Urbaniec1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 198 of 319
Up 2–0, closes it93% 99 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it77% 134 of 175
Chalupa2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 98 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back28% 35 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec8wins
AwayChalupa2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderUrbaniec leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec83.3%5 of 6
AwayChalupa25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec6Chalupa4n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S2Urbaniec6Chalupa4n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S3Urbaniec6Chalupa4n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S4Urbaniec6Chalupa1n = 7Urbaniec took 6 of 7
S5Urbaniec2Chalupa1n = 3Urbaniec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecChalupaU − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.932.5+8.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime603 / 1186 vs 368 / 70050.8%52.6%603 / 1186 vs 368 / 700Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecUrbaniec 1.44/Chalupa 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68%
Urbaniec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Urbaniec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 29 · 16:30R. Urbaniec—81111113M. Chalupa—115681
WJul 28 · 18:30R. Urbaniec—791112113M. Chalupa—111171082
WJul 27 · 13:30R. Urbaniec—1110116113M. Chalupa—41251182
WJul 27 · 10:00R. Urbaniec—11117113M. Chalupa—441151
LJul 21 · 16:30R. Urbaniec—13870M. Chalupa—1511113
WJul 20 · 20:30R. Urbaniec—111110113M. Chalupa—931271
WJun 23 · 15:30R. Urbaniec—1111113M. Chalupa—7850
WMay 19 · 15:00R. Urbaniec—1111113M. Chalupa—7640
WApr 26 · 21:30R. Urbaniec—91111143M. Chalupa—1146121
LApr 26 · 20:30R. Urbaniec—11881192M. Chalupa—611117113
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113WSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113WSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113LSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WSep 2 · 21:00R. Urbaniec1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.205660LSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Urbaniec
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M. Chalupa
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