TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065198
Played Sep 3Finished
Marek Holub
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411711––––
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 49 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 36–43 Michal Chalupa Marek Holub has won 36 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:32What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-43 in 79
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 7 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1663 vs Chalupa 1656
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 80% vs Chalupa 60%
Holub
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 70% vs Chalupa 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +1 · Chalupa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.00 / Chalupa 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chalupa)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065198
Holub2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Chalupa1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 124 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it74% 81 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub4wins
AwayChalupa6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub80%4 of 5
AwayChalupa100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub2Chalupa8n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S3Holub5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Holub5Chalupa4n = 9Holub took 5 of 9
S5Holub3Chalupa3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubChalupaH − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.145.3−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 310 vs 370 / 70447.7%52.6%148 / 310 vs 370 / 704Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaHolub 2.00/Chalupa 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 18:30M. Holub—810111172M. Chalupa—111268113
LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub—12991182M. Chalupa—1011117113
WSep 1 · 20:00M. Holub—159117113M. Chalupa—131151182
LAug 31 · 15:30M. Holub—91070M. Chalupa—1112113
LAug 25 · 14:30M. Holub—10121081M. Chalupa—121012113
LAug 24 · 12:30M. Holub—751111102M. Chalupa—111189123
WAug 19 · 21:00M. Holub—119119113M. Chalupa—81171182
LAug 19 · 19:00M. Holub—8101241M. Chalupa—111210113
WAug 17 · 15:00M. Holub—11111011123M. Chalupa—513128102
WAug 11 · 19:30M. Holub—15115113M. Chalupa—1371191
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub1.83712691Z. Pagac1.83111011113WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172WSep 2 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.61911321M. Holub2.2011711113WSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412LSep 2 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.73111268113M. Holub2.00810111172LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub2.0012991182M. Chalupa1.731011117113WSep 1 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.73131151182M. Holub2.00159117113WSep 1 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.61141050M. Holub2.201612113
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172WSep 2 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.73111268113M. Holub2.00810111172WSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub2.0012991182M. Chalupa1.731011117113LSep 1 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.73131151182M. Holub2.00159117113
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