TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13060243
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181210611811117
Marek Holub
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Marek Holub below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 95 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 42–36 Marek Holub Marek Holub has won 36 of their 78 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
42-36 in 78
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 6 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1632 vs Holub 1630
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 80% vs Holub 60%
Chalupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 70% vs Holub 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +1 · Holub -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.73 / Holub 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chalupa)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13060243
Chalupa1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 126 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it74% 81 of 110
Holub2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa5wins
AwayHolub5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa100%4 of 4
AwayHolub83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa7Holub3n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S3Chalupa5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S4Chalupa4Holub4n = 8split evenly
S5Chalupa2Holub3n = 5Holub took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaHolubC − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.142.9+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 698 vs 144 / 30452.4%47.4%366 / 698 vs 144 / 304Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.73/Holub 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 21:28M. Chalupa—1011117113M. Holub—12991182
LSep 1 · 20:00M. Chalupa—131151182M. Holub—159117113
WAug 31 · 15:30M. Chalupa—1112113M. Holub—91070
WAug 25 · 14:30M. Chalupa—121012113M. Holub—10121081
WAug 24 · 12:30M. Chalupa—111189123M. Holub—751111102
LAug 19 · 21:00M. Chalupa—81171182M. Holub—119119113
WAug 19 · 19:00M. Chalupa—111210113M. Holub—8101241
LAug 17 · 15:00M. Chalupa—513128102M. Holub—11111011123
LAug 11 · 19:30M. Chalupa—1371191M. Holub—15115113
LAug 8 · 16:59M. Chalupa—11780M. Holub—1311113
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub1.83712691Z. Pagac1.83111011113WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172WSep 2 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.61911321M. Holub2.2011711113WSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub2.0012991182M. Chalupa1.731011117113WSep 1 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.73131151182M. Holub2.00159117113WSep 1 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.61141050M. Holub2.201612113
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