TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13051784
Played Sep 1Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1315119511117811
Marek Holub
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Marek Holub below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 54.6%
101 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 40–35 Marek Holub Marek Holub has won 35 of their 75 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-35 in 75
Chalupa
Wrong
gap of 5 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1632 vs Holub 1631
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 100% vs Holub 60%
Chalupa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 60% vs Holub 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +5 · Holub +2
Chalupa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.73 / Holub 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chalupa)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13051784
Chalupa1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 124 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it92% 45 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it73% 80 of 109
Holub2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 68 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa5wins
AwayHolub5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa100%5 of 5
AwayHolub100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S2Chalupa6Holub4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S3Chalupa5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S4Chalupa3Holub3n = 6split evenly
S5Chalupa1Holub2n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaHolubC − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.738.6+0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 696 vs 143 / 30252.4%47.4%365 / 696 vs 143 / 302Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.73/Holub 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 14:30M. Chalupa—121012113M. Holub—10121081
WAug 24 · 12:30M. Chalupa—111189123M. Holub—751111102
LAug 19 · 21:00M. Chalupa—81171182M. Holub—119119113
WAug 19 · 19:00M. Chalupa—111210113M. Holub—8101241
LAug 17 · 15:00M. Chalupa—513128102M. Holub—11111011123
LAug 11 · 19:30M. Chalupa—1371191M. Holub—15115113
LAug 8 · 16:59M. Chalupa—11780M. Holub—1311113
LAug 8 · 15:30M. Chalupa—5480M. Holub—1111113
WAug 7 · 16:00M. Chalupa—1211113M. Holub—10690
WAug 5 · 20:30M. Chalupa—1511113M. Holub—13860
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub1.83712691Z. Pagac1.83111011113WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172WSep 2 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.61911321M. Holub2.2011711113WSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412LSep 2 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.73111268113M. Holub2.00810111172LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub2.0012991182M. Chalupa1.731011117113WSep 1 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.61141050M. Holub2.201612113
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