TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071361
Played Sep 4Finished
Lukas Kern
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
2115111191181311
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Kern above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 92 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Lukas Kern at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kern 9–10 Michal Chalupa Lukas Kern has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:37What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kern 1609 vs Chalupa 1644
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kern 40% vs Chalupa 60%
Chalupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kern 20% vs Chalupa 60%
Chalupa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kern -1 · Chalupa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kern form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKern 1.91 / Chalupa 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chalupa)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071361
Kern1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 42 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Chalupa1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 128 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it75% 85 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKern5wins
AwayChalupa5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKern66.7%4 of 6
AwayChalupa75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kern6Chalupa4n = 10Kern took 6 of 10
S2Kern3Chalupa7n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S3Kern5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Kern4Chalupa4n = 8split evenly
S5Kern3Chalupa2n = 5Kern took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKernChalupaK − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.040.8+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKernChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 248 vs 372 / 70852.4%52.5%130 / 248 vs 372 / 708Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaKern 1.91/Chalupa 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kern won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 12:00L. Kern—1111118113M. Chalupa—97131192
LAug 26 · 19:30L. Kern—4990M. Chalupa—1111113
WAug 19 · 20:00L. Kern—1111113M. Chalupa—6990
LAug 13 · 21:30L. Kern—13711892M. Chalupa—1111511113
WAug 13 · 18:00L. Kern—11711113M. Chalupa—311291
WAug 11 · 20:30L. Kern—1411911113M. Chalupa—16511852
LAug 11 · 14:30L. Kern—981191M. Chalupa—11117113
WAug 8 · 14:00L. Kern—117911123M. Chalupa—511118102
LAug 7 · 14:00L. Kern—121191162M. Chalupa—1013119113
LJul 30 · 20:30L. Kern—6512101M. Chalupa—111110123
L. Kern10
WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 15:30R. Hudeczek2.0012911113L. Kern1.731011731WSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192WSep 1 · 20:58R. Urbaniec1.4482100L. Kern2.631111123LSep 1 · 20:30V. Burdik1.5311411113L. Kern2.38911571LSep 1 · 19:30L. Kern2.50115981M. Wollny1.5091111113
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
Upcoming Matches
L. Kern
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M. Chalupa
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