TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071815
Played Sep 4Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1171214811311––
Lukas Kern
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:00 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Lukas Kern below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 77 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Lukas Kern at 75.3%
77 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 5–20 Lukas Kern Zbynek Pagac has won 5 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:00What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kern
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-20 in 25
Kern
Correct
gap of 15 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1476 vs Kern 1551
Kern
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 40% vs Kern 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 30% vs Kern 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac -2 · Kern -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kern)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kern form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 3.25 / Kern 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Kern)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071815
Pagac3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 108 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Kern1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 73 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it87% 54 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac1wins
AwayKern9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKern leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagacn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKern100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac2Kern8n = 10Kern took 8 of 10
S2Pagac1Kern9n = 10Kern took 9 of 10
S3Pagac2Kern8n = 10Kern took 8 of 10
S4Pagac3Kern2n = 5Pagac took 3 of 5
S5Pagac1Kern2n = 3Kern took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacKernP − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.038.7−6.7per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacKernBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 640 vs 131 / 25147%52.2%301 / 640 vs 131 / 251Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KernPagac 3.25/Kern 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Kern · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kern won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 14:00Z. Pagac—11981192L. Kern—711118113
LAug 26 · 18:00Z. Pagac—7101111102L. Kern—111236123
LAug 16 · 11:30Z. Pagac—7940L. Kern—1111113
LAug 13 · 19:30Z. Pagac—4970L. Kern—1111113
LAug 11 · 19:00Z. Pagac—8890L. Kern—1111113
LAug 11 · 17:00Z. Pagac—911431L. Kern—11811113
LAug 11 · 15:00Z. Pagac—7840L. Kern—1111113
LAug 8 · 17:30Z. Pagac—8713101L. Kern—111111123
WAug 8 · 15:00Z. Pagac—119912113L. Kern—811111042
LJul 28 · 13:30Z. Pagac—8950L. Kern—1111113
Z. Pagac10
LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192LSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.839713101T. Kypr1.83111111123LSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
L. Kern10
WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113WSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:30R. Hudeczek2.0012911113L. Kern1.731011731WSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192WSep 1 · 20:58R. Urbaniec1.4482100L. Kern2.631111123LSep 1 · 20:30V. Burdik1.5311411113L. Kern2.38911571LSep 1 · 19:30L. Kern2.50115981M. Wollny1.5091111113
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