TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071787
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811114118––
Zbynek Pagac
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:39 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 63.6%
73 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 73–65 Zbynek Pagac Zbynek Pagac has won 65 of their 138 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:39What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
73-65 in 138
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 8 in 138, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1664 vs Pagac 1483
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 40% vs Pagac 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 50% vs Pagac 30%
Chalupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +1 · Pagac -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.57 / Pagac 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Chalupa)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071787
Chalupa1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 128 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it75% 85 of 114
Pagac2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 108 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa9wins
AwayPagac1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa100%8 of 8
AwayPagacn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa8Pagac2n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S2Chalupa6Pagac4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S3Chalupa8Pagac2n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S4Chalupa1Pagac5n = 6Pagac took 5 of 6
S5Chalupa5Pagac0n = 5Chalupa took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaPagacC − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.933.6+7.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 710 vs 301 / 63852.5%47.2%373 / 710 vs 301 / 638Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.57/Pagac 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 15:00M. Chalupa—4111091Z. Pagac—11712113
WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa—119114113Z. Pagac—61181162
WSep 3 · 19:00M. Chalupa—118118123Z. Pagac—811411102
WSep 1 · 19:30M. Chalupa—1111113Z. Pagac—2760
WAug 31 · 16:59M. Chalupa—1111113Z. Pagac—6270
WAug 31 · 16:30M. Chalupa—118117113Z. Pagac—91171142
WAug 26 · 21:30M. Chalupa—1112113Z. Pagac—91040
WAug 26 · 20:30M. Chalupa—1011711123Z. Pagac—129117102
WAug 25 · 19:00M. Chalupa—115128113Z. Pagac—911101152
WAug 25 · 16:30M. Chalupa—1111113Z. Pagac—6940
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
Z. Pagac10
LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192LSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.839713101T. Kypr1.83111111123LSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
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