TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070680
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411511119711––
Roman Hudeczek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Roman Hudeczek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-10
Point 68 set 4, 7-10 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 54.0%
68 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Chalupa 23–26 Roman Hudeczek Michal Chalupa has won 23 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:58What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hudeczek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-26 in 49
Hudeczek
Correct
gap of 3 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1675 vs Hudeczek 1622
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 80% vs Hudeczek 40%
Chalupa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 70% vs Hudeczek 40%
Chalupa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +4 · Hudeczek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hudeczek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.91 / Hudeczek 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chalupa)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070680
Chalupa1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 97 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back27% 33 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 67
Hudeczek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 69 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it75% 48 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa4wins
AwayHudeczek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHudeczek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa40%2 of 5
AwayHudeczek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa5Hudeczek5n = 10split evenly
S2Chalupa6Hudeczek4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S3Chalupa5Hudeczek5n = 10split evenly
S4Chalupa2Hudeczek6n = 8Hudeczek took 6 of 8
S5Chalupa1Hudeczek2n = 3Hudeczek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaHudeczekC − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.041.1+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaHudeczekBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 706 vs 159 / 33152.7%48%372 / 706 vs 159 / 331Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.91/Hudeczek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hudeczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 18:00M. Chalupa—1311113R. Hudeczek—11790
WAug 26 · 18:30M. Chalupa—71111113R. Hudeczek—117481
LAug 25 · 18:00M. Chalupa—141111982R. Hudeczek—168511113
LAug 24 · 17:07M. Chalupa—118591R. Hudeczek—41111113
LAug 24 · 16:30M. Chalupa—1111811122R. Hudeczek—991113143
WAug 21 · 20:58M. Chalupa—11611113R. Hudeczek—611971
LAug 21 · 19:00M. Chalupa—11157121R. Hudeczek—91711143
LAug 21 · 14:00M. Chalupa—1010130R. Hudeczek—1212153
WAug 19 · 16:00M. Chalupa—1111119103R. Hudeczek—13591192
LAug 17 · 17:30M. Chalupa—1111781R. Hudeczek—13511113
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
R. Hudeczek10
WSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891WSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113WSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101LSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:30R. Hudeczek2.0012911113L. Kern1.731011731LSep 2 · 21:00R. Urbaniec1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.205660LSep 2 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.61911321M. Holub2.2011711113LSep 2 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.807101191M. Chalupa1.9111129113
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