TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071865
Played Sep 4Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1147111210119––
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:01 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 63.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 64–70 Michal Chalupa Zbynek Pagac has won 64 of their 134 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:01What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
64-70 in 134
Chalupa
Wrong
gap of 6 in 134, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1452 vs Chalupa 1662
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 210 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 20% vs Chalupa 80%
Chalupa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 10% vs Chalupa 70%
Chalupa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac -4 · Chalupa -1
Pagac
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 2.25 / Chalupa 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Chalupa)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071865
Pagac2.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 108 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Chalupa1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 128 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it75% 85 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac1wins
AwayChalupa9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac25%1 of 4
AwayChalupa100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Pagac3Chalupa7n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S3Pagac2Chalupa8n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S4Pagac4Chalupa3n = 7Pagac took 4 of 7
S5Pagac0Chalupa4n = 4Chalupa took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacChalupaP − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.841.0−5.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 636 vs 372 / 70747%52.6%299 / 636 vs 372 / 707Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaPagac 2.25/Chalupa 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 16:59Z. Pagac—6270M. Chalupa—1111113
LAug 31 · 16:30Z. Pagac—91171142M. Chalupa—118117113
LAug 26 · 21:30Z. Pagac—91040M. Chalupa—1112113
LAug 26 · 20:30Z. Pagac—129117102M. Chalupa—1011711123
LAug 25 · 19:00Z. Pagac—911101152M. Chalupa—115128113
LAug 25 · 16:30Z. Pagac—6940M. Chalupa—1111113
LAug 24 · 10:00Z. Pagac—11961192M. Chalupa—711116113
WAug 21 · 20:30Z. Pagac—11119113M. Chalupa—691191
LAug 21 · 15:00Z. Pagac—1161081M. Chalupa—21112113
LAug 19 · 17:30Z. Pagac—1391271M. Chalupa—151110113
Z. Pagac10
LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792LSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192LSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.839713101T. Kypr1.83111111123LSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
Upcoming Matches
Z. Pagac
Nothing scheduled
M. Chalupa
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