TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13073657
Played Sep 3Finished
Michal Chalupa
Home
1.52
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116911118411116
Zbynek Pagac
Away
2.35
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Chalupa above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 61.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Michal Chalupa 70–64 Zbynek Pagac Zbynek Pagac has won 64 of their 134 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:58What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-64 in 134
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 6 in 134, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1670 vs Pagac 1464
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 206 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 60% vs Pagac 20%
Chalupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 70% vs Pagac 10%
Chalupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +3 · Pagac -2
Chalupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (20%) is below what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.52 / Pagac 2.35
Signal prob.64% / 37%
Edge (Chalupa)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13073657
Chalupa1.52
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 124 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it74% 81 of 110
Pagac2.35
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 107 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa9wins
AwayPagac1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa100%6 of 6
AwayPagac25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa6Pagac4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa7Pagac3n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S3Chalupa8Pagac2n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S4Chalupa3Pagac4n = 7Pagac took 4 of 7
S5Chalupa4Pagac0n = 4Chalupa took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaPagacC − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.035.8+5.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime371 / 705 vs 299 / 63452.6%47.2%371 / 705 vs 299 / 634Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.336.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.52/Pagac 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.5%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 16:59M. Chalupa—1111113Z. Pagac—6270
WAug 31 · 16:30M. Chalupa—118117113Z. Pagac—91171142
WAug 26 · 21:30M. Chalupa—1112113Z. Pagac—91040
WAug 26 · 20:30M. Chalupa—1011711123Z. Pagac—129117102
WAug 25 · 19:00M. Chalupa—115128113Z. Pagac—911101152
WAug 25 · 16:30M. Chalupa—1111113Z. Pagac—6940
WAug 24 · 10:00M. Chalupa—711116113Z. Pagac—11961192
LAug 21 · 20:30M. Chalupa—691191Z. Pagac—11119113
WAug 21 · 15:00M. Chalupa—21112113Z. Pagac—1161081
WAug 19 · 17:30M. Chalupa—151110113Z. Pagac—1391271
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
Z. Pagac10
LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.839713101T. Kypr1.83111111123LSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
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