TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071860
Played Sep 4Finished
Lukas Kern
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511119911911––
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Kern above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Kern at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kern 10–11 Michal Chalupa Lukas Kern has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:59What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kern 1568 vs Chalupa 1659
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kern 40% vs Chalupa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kern 40% vs Chalupa 60%
Chalupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kern +1 · Chalupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKern 1.91 / Chalupa 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chalupa)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071860
Kern1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 42 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back20% 12 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Chalupa1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 128 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it75% 85 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKern6wins
AwayChalupa4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKern leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKern80%4 of 5
AwayChalupa60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kern5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Kern4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S3Kern6Chalupa4n = 10Kern took 6 of 10
S4Kern4Chalupa4n = 8split evenly
S5Kern4Chalupa2n = 6Kern took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKernChalupaK − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.640.1+2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKernChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 252 vs 374 / 71252.4%52.5%132 / 252 vs 374 / 712Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaKern 1.91/Chalupa 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern—511111092M. Chalupa—112512113
WSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern—251111133M. Chalupa—111198112
WAug 31 · 12:00L. Kern—1111118113M. Chalupa—97131192
LAug 26 · 19:30L. Kern—4990M. Chalupa—1111113
WAug 19 · 20:00L. Kern—1111113M. Chalupa—6990
LAug 13 · 21:30L. Kern—13711892M. Chalupa—1111511113
WAug 13 · 18:00L. Kern—11711113M. Chalupa—311291
WAug 11 · 20:30L. Kern—1411911113M. Chalupa—16511852
LAug 11 · 14:30L. Kern—981191M. Chalupa—11117113
WAug 8 · 14:00L. Kern—117911123M. Chalupa—511118102
L. Kern10
WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113WSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:30R. Hudeczek2.0012911113L. Kern1.731011731WSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192WSep 1 · 20:58R. Urbaniec1.4482100L. Kern2.631111123LSep 1 · 20:30V. Burdik1.5311411113L. Kern2.38911571LSep 1 · 19:30L. Kern2.50115981M. Wollny1.5091111113
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
Upcoming Matches
L. Kern
Nothing scheduled
M. Chalupa
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