TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065110
Played Sep 3Finished
Zbynek Pagac
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111184111181012
Michal Chalupa
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:18 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Chalupa to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbynek Pagac above · Michal Chalupa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 94 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Michal Chalupa at 63.6%
94 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Pagac 64–70 Michal Chalupa Zbynek Pagac has won 64 of their 134 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:18What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
64-70 in 134
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 6 in 134, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pagac 1477 vs Chalupa 1650
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pagac 20% vs Chalupa 60%
Chalupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pagac 10% vs Chalupa 70%
Chalupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pagac +1 · Chalupa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPagac 2.63 / Chalupa 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Chalupa)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065110
Pagac2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 107 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Chalupa1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 124 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it74% 81 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePagac1wins
AwayChalupa9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePagac25%1 of 4
AwayChalupa100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pagac4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Pagac3Chalupa7n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S3Pagac2Chalupa8n = 10Chalupa took 8 of 10
S4Pagac4Chalupa3n = 7Pagac took 4 of 7
S5Pagac0Chalupa4n = 4Chalupa took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPagacChalupaP − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.841.0−5.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPagacChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 632 vs 369 / 70347.3%52.5%299 / 632 vs 369 / 703Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaPagac 2.63/Chalupa 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 16:59Z. Pagac—6270M. Chalupa—1111113
LAug 31 · 16:30Z. Pagac—91171142M. Chalupa—118117113
LAug 26 · 21:30Z. Pagac—91040M. Chalupa—1112113
LAug 26 · 20:30Z. Pagac—129117102M. Chalupa—1011711123
LAug 25 · 19:00Z. Pagac—911101152M. Chalupa—115128113
LAug 25 · 16:30Z. Pagac—6940M. Chalupa—1111113
LAug 24 · 10:00Z. Pagac—11961192M. Chalupa—711116113
WAug 21 · 20:30Z. Pagac—11119113M. Chalupa—691191
LAug 21 · 15:00Z. Pagac—1161081M. Chalupa—21112113
LAug 19 · 17:30Z. Pagac—1391271M. Chalupa—151110113
Z. Pagac10
LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192LSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.839713101T. Kypr1.83111111123
M. Chalupa10
LSep 4 · 21:30R. Hudeczek1.731110117113M. Chalupa2.0081291142WSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113LSep 4 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.80711115113M. Chalupa1.9111581132WSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481WSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113LSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:30M. Chalupa1.91451171R. Hudeczek1.8011119113WSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162WSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
Z. Pagac
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M. Chalupa
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