TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070542
Played Sep 4Finished
Lukas Kern
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711119118811119
Zbynek Pagac
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:28 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Kern to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Kern above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Kern at 70.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Kern 19–5 Zbynek Pagac Zbynek Pagac has won 5 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kern
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-5 in 24
Kern
Correct
gap of 14 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kern 1614 vs Pagac 1459
Kern
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kern 20% vs Pagac 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kern 20% vs Pagac 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kern +1 · Pagac -3
Pagac
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kern) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKern 1.33 / Pagac 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Kern)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070542
Kern1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 73 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it87% 54 of 62
Pagac3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 108 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKern9wins
AwayPagac1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKern leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKern100%8 of 8
AwayPagacn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kern8Pagac2n = 10Kern took 8 of 10
S2Kern9Pagac1n = 10Kern took 9 of 10
S3Kern8Pagac2n = 10Kern took 8 of 10
S4Kern2Pagac3n = 5Pagac took 3 of 5
S5Kern2Pagac1n = 3Kern took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKernPagacK − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.331.9+7.4per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKernPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 246 vs 299 / 63552.4%47.1%129 / 246 vs 299 / 635Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KernKern 1.33/Pagac 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Kern · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kern won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 18:00L. Kern—111236123Z. Pagac—7101111102
WAug 16 · 11:30L. Kern—1111113Z. Pagac—7940
WAug 13 · 19:30L. Kern—1111113Z. Pagac—4970
WAug 11 · 19:00L. Kern—1111113Z. Pagac—8890
WAug 11 · 17:00L. Kern—11811113Z. Pagac—911431
WAug 11 · 15:00L. Kern—1111113Z. Pagac—7840
WAug 8 · 17:30L. Kern—111111123Z. Pagac—8713101
LAug 8 · 15:00L. Kern—811111042Z. Pagac—119912113
WJul 28 · 13:30L. Kern—1111113Z. Pagac—8950
WJul 28 · 11:30L. Kern—10121110113Z. Pagac—121081252
L. Kern10
WSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:00L. Kern1.91511991M. Chalupa1.8011911113WSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:00L. Kern1.7311790R. Hudeczek2.001311113LSep 4 · 17:05L. Kern2.00511111092M. Chalupa1.73112512113WSep 4 · 16:00L. Kern1.91251111133M. Chalupa1.80111198112LSep 4 · 15:30R. Hudeczek2.0012911113L. Kern1.731011731WSep 1 · 20:58R. Urbaniec1.4482100L. Kern2.631111123LSep 1 · 20:30V. Burdik1.5311411113L. Kern2.38911571LSep 1 · 19:30L. Kern2.50115981M. Wollny1.5091111113
Z. Pagac10
LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.839713101T. Kypr1.83111111123LSep 3 · 19:00Z. Pagac2.63811411102M. Chalupa1.44118118123
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