TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13064275
Played Sep 3Finished
Marek Holub
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210611911––
Zbynek Pagac
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMarek Holub to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Marek Holub at 58.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 19–40 Zbynek Pagac Marek Holub has won 19 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:58What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pagac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-40 in 59
Pagac
Correct
gap of 21 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1654 vs Pagac 1458
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 196 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Pagac 0%
Holub
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 70% vs Pagac 0%
Holub
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +3 · Pagac -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.83 / Pagac 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holub)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13064275
Holub1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Pagac1.83
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub3wins
AwayPagac7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPagac leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub60%3 of 5
AwayPagac100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Pagac5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub6Pagac4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Holub3Pagac7n = 10Pagac took 7 of 10
S4Holub2Pagac4n = 6Pagac took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubPagacH − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.536.7−4.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 308 vs 298 / 63147.7%47.2%147 / 308 vs 298 / 631Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.83/Pagac 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 17:00M. Holub—714781Z. Pagac—111211113
WAug 25 · 15:00M. Holub—11118113Z. Pagac—451191
LAug 24 · 13:00M. Holub—5150Z. Pagac—1111113
WAug 24 · 11:30M. Holub—1111113Z. Pagac—9480
LAug 20 · 16:30M. Holub—61111262Z. Pagac—119711113
WAug 11 · 20:00M. Holub—1311113Z. Pagac—11960
LAug 8 · 14:30M. Holub—1110681Z. Pagac—61211113
LAug 5 · 19:00M. Holub—87100Z. Pagac—1111123
LAug 5 · 16:30M. Holub—6115101Z. Pagac—11711123
LJul 26 · 18:30M. Holub—11471182Z. Pagac—911117113
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172WSep 2 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.61911321M. Holub2.2011711113WSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412LSep 2 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.73111268113M. Holub2.00810111172LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub2.0012991182M. Chalupa1.731011117113WSep 1 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.73131151182M. Holub2.00159117113WSep 1 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.61141050M. Holub2.201612113
Z. Pagac10
LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192LSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.839713101T. Kypr1.83111111123
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