TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059168
Played Sep 2Finished
Marek Holub
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118611911114111
Radim Urbaniec
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:04 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeRadim Urbaniec to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarek Holub above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 83 set 5, 11-1 — our read held Radim Urbaniec at 55.8%
83 points played in total.
H2H Marek Holub 1–5 Radim Urbaniec Marek Holub has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:04What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Urbaniec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Urbaniec
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1620 vs Urbaniec 1669
Urbaniec
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Urbaniec 20%
Holub
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 60% vs Urbaniec 40%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub -2 · Urbaniec -4
Urbaniec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Urbaniec) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.25 / Urbaniec 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Urbaniec)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059168
Holub2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Urbaniec1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 198 of 319
Up 2–0, closes it93% 99 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it77% 134 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHolub1wins
AwayUrbaniec5wins
1 of 6 to a deciderUrbaniec leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolubn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayUrbaniec100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub1Urbaniec5n = 6Urbaniec took 5 of 6
S2Holub3Urbaniec3n = 6split evenly
S3Holub2Urbaniec4n = 6Urbaniec took 4 of 6
S4Holub1Urbaniec3n = 4Urbaniec took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricHolubUrbaniecH − UBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match32.539.8−7.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 305 vs 603 / 118547.2%50.9%144 / 305 vs 603 / 1185Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbaniecHolub 2.25/Urbaniec 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Urbaniec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LDec 16 · 18:01M. Holub—9720R. Urbaniec—1111113
LDec 16 · 17:30M. Holub—6159101R. Urbaniec—111311123
WMay 26 · 17:30M. Holub—11411153R. Urbaniec—7115131
LMay 26 · 14:30M. Holub—7750R. Urbaniec—1111113
LJan 23 · 20:30M. Holub—61111892R. Urbaniec—118711113
LJan 5 · 11:30M. Holub—6111051R. Urbaniec—11812113
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 21:00M. Holub1.839720T. Kypr1.831111113LSep 3 · 20:00M. Holub2.005470M. Chalupa1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:30T. Kypr1.80410110M. Holub1.911112133LSep 3 · 18:00M. Holub1.83712691Z. Pagac1.83111011113WSep 2 · 21:30M. Holub1.91118119113M. Chalupa1.8061121172WSep 2 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.61911321M. Holub2.2011711113LSep 2 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.73111268113M. Holub2.00810111172LSep 1 · 21:28M. Holub2.0012991182M. Chalupa1.731011117113WSep 1 · 20:00M. Chalupa1.73131151182M. Holub2.00159117113WSep 1 · 19:00R. Hudeczek1.61141050M. Holub2.201612113
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113WSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113WSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113LSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WSep 2 · 21:00R. Urbaniec1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.205660WSep 2 · 20:00R. Urbaniec1.44711118113M. Chalupa2.6311971192
Upcoming Matches
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R. Urbaniec
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