TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13073649
Played Sep 3Finished
Radim Urbaniec
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711711119711––
Michal Kratochvil
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:01 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Urbaniec to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Michal Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Radim Urbaniec at 59.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 5–4 Michal Kratochvil Michal Kratochvil has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:01What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kratochvil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1705 vs Kratochvil 1699
Urbaniec
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 80% vs Kratochvil 40%
Urbaniec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 60% vs Kratochvil 30%
Urbaniec
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec +3 · Kratochvil +2
Urbaniec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kratochvil) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kratochvil form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 2.00 / Kratochvil 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kratochvil)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13073649
Urbaniec2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 191 of 469
Down 0–1, comes back21% 55 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 144
Kratochvil1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite50% won 65 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 42 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeUrbaniec5wins
AwayKratochvil4wins
8 of 9 to a deciderUrbaniec leads 5–4, and 8 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniec80%4 of 5
AwayKratochvil75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec5Kratochvil4n = 9Urbaniec took 5 of 9
S2Urbaniec4Kratochvil5n = 9Kratochvil took 5 of 9
S3Urbaniec5Kratochvil4n = 9Urbaniec took 5 of 9
S4Urbaniec5Kratochvil4n = 9Urbaniec took 5 of 9
S5Urbaniec4Kratochvil4n = 8split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away444%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricUrbaniecKratochvilU − KBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match46.744.1+2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime609 / 1195 vs 275 / 57351%48%609 / 1195 vs 275 / 573Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KratochvilUrbaniec 2.00/Kratochvil 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56%
Kratochvil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kratochvil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 28 · 21:30R. Urbaniec—114911113M. Kratochvil—61111832
WJul 28 · 20:00R. Urbaniec—11611113M. Kratochvil—511891
LJul 25 · 15:30R. Urbaniec—77111152M. Kratochvil—111197113
WJul 22 · 15:30R. Urbaniec—1191211113M. Kratochvil—71114392
WJul 17 · 10:30R. Urbaniec—611115113M. Kratochvil—11731142
LJul 17 · 09:30R. Urbaniec—121211542M. Kratochvil—1410411113
LJul 17 · 06:30R. Urbaniec—11891182M. Kratochvil—311117113
LJun 29 · 17:00R. Urbaniec—911135102M. Kratochvil—1131111123
WJun 29 · 14:00R. Urbaniec—1411128123M. Kratochvil—1281411102
R. Urbaniec10
WSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113WSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113WSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113LSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WSep 2 · 21:00R. Urbaniec1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.205660WSep 2 · 20:00R. Urbaniec1.44711118113M. Chalupa2.6311971192LSep 2 · 19:30M. Holub2.25116911113R. Urbaniec1.5781111412
M. Kratochvil10
WSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113WSep 3 · 19:00V. Burdik2.201179101M. Kratochvil1.6191111123LSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:00E. Mares1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.754890LAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 08:58M. Kratochvil3.00101111782E. Mares1.36125911113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kratochvil3.00611718113E. Mares1.36119111662LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kos1.441111113M. Kratochvil2.638860
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