TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13041663
Played Aug 30Finished
Michal Kratochvil
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111197111816116
Erik Mares
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:49 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Kratochvil above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 18-16
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 106 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Erik Mares at 59.4%
106 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kratochvil 8–19 Erik Mares Michal Kratochvil has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-19 in 27
Mares
Wrong
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kratochvil 1738 vs Mares 1822
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kratochvil 20% vs Mares 0%
Kratochvil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kratochvil 20% vs Mares 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kratochvil -2 · Mares -5
Mares
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (0%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKratochvil 3.00 / Mares 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Mares)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13041663
Kratochvil3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 103 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back31% 42 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 71
Mares1.36
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 134 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it86% 86 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it72% 108 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKratochvil2wins
AwayMares8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKratochviln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMares75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kratochvil2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S2Kratochvil3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S3Kratochvil5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S4Kratochvil4Mares4n = 8split evenly
S5Kratochvil1Mares3n = 4Mares took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKratochvilMaresK − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.239.7−5.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKratochvilMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime274 / 570 vs 585 / 116548.1%50.2%274 / 570 vs 585 / 1165Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresKratochvil 3.00/Mares 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kratochvil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 07:30M. Kratochvil—115711102E. Mares—611111123
LAug 15 · 14:00M. Kratochvil—119751E. Mares—41111113
WAug 15 · 24:30M. Kratochvil—811711113E. Mares—11211652
LAug 13 · 14:30M. Kratochvil—9940E. Mares—1111113
WAug 12 · 11:00M. Kratochvil—101112113E. Mares—1291081
LAug 12 · 08:00M. Kratochvil—951112102E. Mares—1111910123
LAug 11 · 16:30M. Kratochvil—361301E. Mares—111111113
LJul 19 · 08:58M. Kratochvil—761101E. Mares—11115113
LJul 19 · 07:30M. Kratochvil—9770E. Mares—1111113
LJul 18 · 16:30M. Kratochvil—91111142E. Mares—113811113
M. Kratochvil10
WSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113WSep 3 · 19:00V. Burdik2.201179101M. Kratochvil1.6191111123LSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:00E. Mares1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.754890LAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 08:58M. Kratochvil3.00101111782E. Mares1.36125911113LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kos1.441111113M. Kratochvil2.638860
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113WAug 30 · 12:00E. Mares1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.754890WAug 30 · 08:58M. Kratochvil3.00101111782E. Mares1.36125911113
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