TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082470
Played Sep 6Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111131197111012
Tomas Postelt
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingErik Mares above · Tomas Postelt below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 94 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Erik Mares at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 51–63 Tomas Postelt Erik Mares has won 51 of their 114 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:21What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Postelt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-63 in 114
Postelt
Correct
gap of 12 in 114, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1844 vs Postelt 1798
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 20% vs Postelt 60%
Postelt
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 40% vs Postelt 70%
Postelt
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -2 · Postelt +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.83 / Postelt 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mares)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082470
Mares1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Postelt1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares7wins
AwayPostelt3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares85.7%6 of 7
AwayPostelt66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares7Postelt3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Mares8Postelt2n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S3Mares4Postelt6n = 10Postelt took 6 of 10
S4Mares3Postelt4n = 7Postelt took 4 of 7
S5Mares3Postelt2n = 5Mares took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresPosteltM − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.137.3+3.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresPosteltBasisWin rate · lifetime595 / 1186 vs 344 / 74250.2%46.4%595 / 1186 vs 344 / 742Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.83/Postelt 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares—911117102T. Postelt—113911123
WAug 26 · 06:30E. Mares—111155113T. Postelt—45111152
WAug 20 · 10:00E. Mares—11115113T. Postelt—681181
WAug 19 · 15:00E. Mares—1111153T. Postelt—82130
WAug 18 · 14:00E. Mares—1111113T. Postelt—8990
LAug 17 · 15:30E. Mares—12481182T. Postelt—1011115113
WAug 15 · 02:58E. Mares—711139113T. Postelt—117111182
WAug 15 · 02:00E. Mares—111198113T. Postelt—89111172
LAug 13 · 17:30E. Mares—91080T. Postelt—1112113
WAug 13 · 16:30E. Mares—11118113T. Postelt—791161
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171WSep 4 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.7385130E. Mares2.001111153
T. Postelt10
LSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271WSep 6 · 08:30T. Postelt1.6111129113O. Kolisnyk2.205101181LSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 2 · 20:58T. Postelt1.731111153J. Ruzicka2.0079130WSep 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt1.916840T. Postelt1.801111113LSep 2 · 19:00M. Huk2.1061112113T. Postelt1.671171091LSep 2 · 18:30T. Postelt1.671211131192J. Ruzicka2.10149157113WSep 1 · 17:30J. Kycelt1.85116781T. Postelt1.8581111113WSep 1 · 16:00F. Wolf1.80511751T. Postelt1.9111411113WSep 1 · 15:00L. Jindrak1.50114111252T. Postelt2.50711414113
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