TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082596
Played Sep 6Finished
Oleksandr Kolisnyk
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811911116119711
Erik Mares
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Kolisnyk above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Erik Mares at 59.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolisnyk 16–12 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:55What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-12 in 28
Kolisnyk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolisnyk 1715 vs Mares 1844
Mares
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolisnyk 0% vs Mares 20%
Mares
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolisnyk 40% vs Mares 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolisnyk -5 · Mares -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolisnyk 2.50 / Mares 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Mares)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082596
Kolisnyk2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 85 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back22% 21 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 56
Mares1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 145 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it87% 90 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it72% 118 of 165
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolisnyk6wins
AwayMares4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolisnyk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolisnyk80%4 of 5
AwayMares60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolisnyk5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolisnyk4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Kolisnyk6Mares4n = 10Kolisnyk took 6 of 10
S4Kolisnyk4Mares3n = 7Kolisnyk took 4 of 7
S5Kolisnyk2Mares1n = 3Kolisnyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolisnykMaresK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.039.3−0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolisnykMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime553 / 1100 vs 595 / 118650.3%50.2%553 / 1100 vs 595 / 1186Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresKolisnyk 2.50/Mares 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 09:00O. Kolisnyk—111369123E. Mares—9111111102
LSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk—89111172E. Mares—111169113
WAug 27 · 13:30O. Kolisnyk—12911113E. Mares—1011891
WAug 27 · 11:00O. Kolisnyk—91313113E. Mares—11111181
LAug 17 · 14:00O. Kolisnyk—1113991E. Mares—81511113
LAug 13 · 13:30O. Kolisnyk—3380E. Mares—1111113
WAug 13 · 12:00O. Kolisnyk—91211113E. Mares—1110471
WAug 12 · 12:00O. Kolisnyk—1181110113E. Mares—71191282
LAug 10 · 12:30O. Kolisnyk—8490E. Mares—1111113
WJul 31 · 02:58O. Kolisnyk—1111113E. Mares—8970
O. Kolisnyk10
WSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123LSep 6 · 08:30T. Postelt1.6111129113O. Kolisnyk2.205101181LSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661LSep 5 · 20:58J. Jr1.5711119113O. Kolisnyk2.25691181LSep 5 · 20:30J. Kanera2.251111113O. Kolisnyk1.578760LSep 5 · 19:30O. Kolisnyk2.256490J. Jr1.571111113LSep 5 · 18:30M. Zahradka1.831111188113O. Kolisnyk1.8348201182WAug 30 · 09:30O. Kolisnyk1.531111711143J. Kanera2.38913115122WAug 30 · 08:00M. Huk1.9161111982O. Kolisnyk1.80118711113WAug 30 · 07:00J. Kanera2.50811611132O. Kolisnyk1.50119119153
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171WSep 4 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.7385130E. Mares2.001111153
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