TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070707
Played Sep 4Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1128111311117––
Jakub Vales
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingErik Mares above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Vales at 55.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 37–36 Jakub Vales Jakub Vales has won 36 of their 73 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:08What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-36 in 73
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1898 vs Vales 1914
Vales
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 60% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +2 · Vales +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.80 / Vales 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mares)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070707
Mares1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 142 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it86% 89 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it72% 115 of 160
Vales1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 31 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayVales5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares60%3 of 5
AwayVales60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S2Mares7Vales3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S3Mares5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S4Mares4Vales5n = 9Vales took 5 of 9
S5Mares1Vales2n = 3Vales took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresValesM − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.639.6+1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresValesBasisWin rate · lifetime591 / 1176 vs 274 / 49750.3%55.1%591 / 1176 vs 274 / 497Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.80/Vales 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 23:30E. Mares—912781J. Vales—111011113
WJul 30 · 15:30E. Mares—11711143J. Vales—7118121
WJul 29 · 10:30E. Mares—1181111113J. Vales—13115852
LJul 29 · 09:28E. Mares—111169112J. Vales—871111133
LJul 29 · 06:00E. Mares—5113101J. Vales—11711123
LJul 24 · 12:30E. Mares—514851J. Vales—111211113
WJul 24 · 08:58E. Mares—12811113J. Vales—1011951
WJul 24 · 08:00E. Mares—1211113J. Vales—10480
WJul 3 · 10:30E. Mares—81111113J. Vales—119761
LJun 28 · 10:00E. Mares—111181092J. Vales—581112113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.7385130E. Mares2.001111153
J. Vales10
WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113LSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153
Upcoming Matches
E. Mares
J. Vales
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.