TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13078125
Played Sep 5Finished
Jakub Vales
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012311711––––
Jan Zajicek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:50 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeJan Zajicek to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Vales above · Jan Zajicek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-9
Point 51 set 3, 6-9 — our read held Jan Zajicek at 66.1%
51 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jakub Vales 7–18 Jan Zajicek Jakub Vales has won 7 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:50What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zajicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-18 in 25
Zajicek
Correct
gap of 11 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vales 1891 vs Zajicek 1878
Vales
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vales 60% vs Zajicek 40%
Vales
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vales 50% vs Zajicek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vales -2 · Zajicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Zajicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zajicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVales 2.63 / Zajicek 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Zajicek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13078125
Vales2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 32 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Zajicek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 103 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it85% 81 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVales4wins
AwayZajicek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZajicek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVales40%2 of 5
AwayZajicek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vales5Zajicek5n = 10split evenly
S2Vales4Zajicek6n = 10Zajicek took 6 of 10
S3Vales3Zajicek7n = 10Zajicek took 7 of 10
S4Vales4Zajicek3n = 7Vales took 4 of 7
S5Vales2Zajicek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricValesZajicekV − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.438.0−0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricValesZajicekBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 504 vs 349 / 65655%53.2%277 / 504 vs 349 / 656Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZajicekVales 2.63/Zajicek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Zajicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zajicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 10:30J. Vales—1111123J. Zajicek—74100
LSep 4 · 20:58J. Vales—8690J. Zajicek—1111113
LSep 4 · 18:30J. Vales—71111692J. Zajicek—118611113
LJul 13 · 20:00J. Vales—116611102J. Zajicek—711116123
LJun 26 · 21:30J. Vales—117851J. Zajicek—91111113
WJun 26 · 19:00J. Vales—14611113J. Zajicek—1211391
LJun 18 · 19:00J. Vales—1110731J. Zajicek—21211113
WJun 3 · 20:58J. Vales—8111111113J. Zajicek—11613772
WJun 3 · 20:00J. Vales—811611113J. Zajicek—11911292
LMay 21 · 20:30J. Vales—8990J. Zajicek—1111113
J. Vales10
WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113
J. Zajicek10
LSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690LSep 5 · 16:00L. Jindrak2.6391111113J. Zajicek1.44114941WSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121WSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:30J. Medek1.831111113J. Zajicek1.839970LSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:30J. Vales2.631111123J. Zajicek1.4474100WSep 4 · 20:58J. Vales2.508690J. Zajicek1.501111113LSep 4 · 20:30J. Medek1.8061111113J. Zajicek1.91117671LSep 4 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.7385130E. Mares2.001111153
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