TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077458
Played Sep 5Finished
Jakub Vales
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171141210––––
Jan Zajicek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeJan Zajicek to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Vales above · Jan Zajicek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 55 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Jan Zajicek at 54.2%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Vales 7–18 Jan Zajicek Jakub Vales has won 7 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zajicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-18 in 25
Zajicek
Wrong
gap of 11 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vales 1891 vs Zajicek 1878
Vales
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vales 40% vs Zajicek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vales 60% vs Zajicek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vales -2 · Zajicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Zajicek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zajicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVales 2.63 / Zajicek 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Zajicek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077458
Vales2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 32 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Zajicek1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 103 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it85% 81 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVales4wins
AwayZajicek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZajicek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVales40%2 of 5
AwayZajicek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vales5Zajicek5n = 10split evenly
S2Vales4Zajicek6n = 10Zajicek took 6 of 10
S3Vales3Zajicek7n = 10Zajicek took 7 of 10
S4Vales4Zajicek3n = 7Vales took 4 of 7
S5Vales2Zajicek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricValesZajicekV − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.438.0−0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricValesZajicekBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 504 vs 349 / 65655%53.2%277 / 504 vs 349 / 656Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZajicekVales 2.63/Zajicek 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Zajicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vales won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 10:30J. Vales—1111123J. Zajicek—74100
LSep 4 · 20:58J. Vales—8690J. Zajicek—1111113
LSep 4 · 18:30J. Vales—71111692J. Zajicek—118611113
LJul 13 · 20:00J. Vales—116611102J. Zajicek—711116123
LJun 26 · 21:30J. Vales—117851J. Zajicek—91111113
WJun 26 · 19:00J. Vales—14611113J. Zajicek—1211391
LJun 18 · 19:00J. Vales—1110731J. Zajicek—21211113
WJun 3 · 20:58J. Vales—8111111113J. Zajicek—11613772
WJun 3 · 20:00J. Vales—811611113J. Zajicek—11911292
LMay 21 · 20:30J. Vales—8990J. Zajicek—1111113
J. Vales10
WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113LSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153
J. Zajicek10
LSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690LSep 5 · 16:00L. Jindrak2.6391111113J. Zajicek1.44114941WSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113WSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121WSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:30J. Medek1.831111113J. Zajicek1.839970LSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113WSep 4 · 20:58J. Vales2.508690J. Zajicek1.501111113LSep 4 · 20:30J. Medek1.8061111113J. Zajicek1.91117671LSep 4 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.7385130E. Mares2.001111153
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