TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082682
Played Sep 5Finished
Jakub Vales
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511911116811––
Josef Medek
Away
1.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:00 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeJosef Medek to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Vales above · Josef Medek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Josef Medek at 58.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Vales 9–19 Josef Medek Jakub Vales has won 9 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:00What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Medek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-19 in 28
Medek
Correct
gap of 10 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vales 1900 vs Medek 2000
Medek
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vales 60% vs Medek 80%
Medek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vales 60% vs Medek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vales +3 · Medek +1
Vales
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Medek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Medek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVales 2.20 / Medek 1.60
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Medek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082682
Vales2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 32 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Medek1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 115 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it93% 57 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it80% 82 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVales6wins
AwayMedek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVales leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVales100%4 of 4
AwayMedek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vales4Medek6n = 10Medek took 6 of 10
S2Vales5Medek5n = 10split evenly
S3Vales6Medek4n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S4Vales3Medek3n = 6split evenly
S5Vales3Medek1n = 4Vales took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricValesMedekV − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.437.3−0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricValesMedekBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 507 vs 302 / 52254.8%57.9%278 / 507 vs 302 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekVales 2.20/Medek 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.1%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Medek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales—7590J. Medek—1111113
LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales—591181J. Medek—11116113
WSep 5 · 11:00J. Vales—1114113J. Medek—61290
WSep 4 · 19:00J. Vales—111145113J. Medek—76111162
LJul 13 · 21:30J. Vales—6790J. Medek—1111113
WJul 13 · 19:00J. Vales—511115113J. Medek—11971182
WJun 26 · 20:30J. Vales—1111113J. Medek—5880
LJun 18 · 21:28J. Vales—91151182J. Medek—118117113
WJun 18 · 20:00J. Vales—691111123J. Medek—111159102
WMay 21 · 18:30J. Vales—11412143J. Medek—61110121
J. Vales10
WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113LSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592WSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113
J. Medek10
WSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690WSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113WSep 5 · 15:30J. Medek1.331111113L. Jindrak3.257750LSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121WSep 5 · 12:30J. Medek1.831111113J. Zajicek1.839970LSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113WSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113WSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:30J. Medek1.8061111113J. Zajicek1.91117671LSep 4 · 19:00J. Medek1.4076111162J. Vales2.75111145113
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