TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071892
Played Sep 4Finished
Josef Medek
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711611114115611
Jakub Vales
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:07 and never touched — 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeJosef Medek to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJosef Medek above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 83 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Josef Medek at 68.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Josef Medek 17–8 Jakub Vales Jakub Vales has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:07What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Medek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Medek
Wrong
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Medek 1887 vs Vales 1914
Vales
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Medek 60% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Medek 50% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Medek -2 · Vales -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Medek) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMedek 1.40 / Vales 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Medek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071892
Medek1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 115 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it93% 57 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it80% 82 of 103
Vales2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 31 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMedek4wins
AwayVales6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVales leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMedek57.1%4 of 7
AwayVales100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Medek7Vales3n = 10Medek took 7 of 10
S2Medek4Vales6n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S3Medek5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S4Medek4Vales3n = 7Medek took 4 of 7
S5Medek1Vales4n = 5Vales took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMedekValesM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.837.6+2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMedekValesBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 512 vs 274 / 49757.4%55.1%294 / 512 vs 274 / 497Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekMedek 1.40/Vales 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.5%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vales won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 19:00J. Medek—76111162J. Vales—111145113
WJul 13 · 21:30J. Medek—1111113J. Vales—6790
LJul 13 · 19:00J. Medek—11971182J. Vales—511115113
LJun 26 · 20:30J. Medek—5880J. Vales—1111113
WJun 18 · 21:28J. Medek—118117113J. Vales—91151182
LJun 18 · 20:00J. Medek—111159102J. Vales—691111123
LMay 21 · 18:30J. Medek—61110121J. Vales—11412143
WMay 19 · 17:30J. Medek—11811173J. Vales—8113151
LMay 19 · 14:00J. Medek—116101162J. Vales—711125113
WMay 6 · 20:58J. Medek—1111113J. Vales—7660
J. Medek10
WSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690WSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113WSep 5 · 15:30J. Medek1.331111113L. Jindrak3.257750LSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121WSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Medek1.831111113J. Zajicek1.839970LSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113WSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113WSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:30J. Medek1.8061111113J. Zajicek1.91117671
J. Vales10
WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113LSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113
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