TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082106
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Postelt
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119118711811711
Jakub Vales
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Postelt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Postelt above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Postelt at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Postelt 14–21 Jakub Vales Tomas Postelt has won 14 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:39What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vales
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-21 in 35
Vales
Correct
gap of 7 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1798 vs Vales 1910
Vales
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 60% vs Vales 40%
Postelt
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 70% vs Vales 50%
Postelt
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt +3 · Vales +2
Postelt
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Vales) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 2.75 / Vales 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Vales)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082106
Postelt2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 73 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back33% 31 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 47
Vales1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 119 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it89% 54 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it71% 77 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePostelt5wins
AwayVales5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePostelt75%3 of 4
AwayVales66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt4Vales6n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S2Postelt6Vales4n = 10Postelt took 6 of 10
S3Postelt4Vales6n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S4Postelt3Vales5n = 8Vales took 5 of 8
S5Postelt3Vales1n = 4Postelt took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPosteltValesP − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.241.1−0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltValesBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 742 vs 281 / 51146.4%55%344 / 742 vs 281 / 511Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ValesPostelt 2.75/Vales 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vales won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 09:30T. Postelt—8131271J. Vales—111114113
LSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt—11117872J. Vales—981111113
WJun 27 · 24:30T. Postelt—912613113J. Vales—1110111182
LJun 24 · 23:00T. Postelt—811851J. Vales—11511113
LJun 24 · 09:00T. Postelt—10101571J. Vales—121213113
WJun 24 · 06:30T. Postelt—116119113J. Vales—91191152
WJun 23 · 07:00T. Postelt—1113113J. Vales—91160
LJun 17 · 17:00T. Postelt—3780J. Vales—1111113
WJun 17 · 14:30T. Postelt—711911113J. Vales—11711862
WJun 13 · 14:00T. Postelt—111011113J. Vales—412861
T. Postelt10
LSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271WSep 6 · 08:30T. Postelt1.6111129113O. Kolisnyk2.205101181WSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123WSep 2 · 20:58T. Postelt1.731111153J. Ruzicka2.0079130WSep 2 · 20:00J. Kycelt1.916840T. Postelt1.801111113LSep 2 · 19:00M. Huk2.1061112113T. Postelt1.671171091LSep 2 · 18:30T. Postelt1.671211131192J. Ruzicka2.10149157113WSep 1 · 17:30J. Kycelt1.85116781T. Postelt1.8581111113WSep 1 · 16:00F. Wolf1.80511751T. Postelt1.9111411113WSep 1 · 15:00L. Jindrak1.50114111252T. Postelt2.50711414113
J. Vales10
WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271LSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113LSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113
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