TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082107
Played Sep 6Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115411115611115
Jakub Vales
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 80 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Erik Mares at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 38–36 Jakub Vales Jakub Vales has won 36 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:39What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vales
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-36 in 74
Mares
Correct
gap of 2 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1863 vs Vales 1913
Vales
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Vales 60%
Vales
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +1 · Vales +3
Vales
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vales) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.83 / Vales 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vales)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082107
Mares1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Vales1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares6wins
AwayVales4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares80%4 of 5
AwayVales60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S2Mares6Vales4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares6Vales4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S4Mares5Vales4n = 9Mares took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresValesM − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.038.0+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresValesBasisWin rate · lifetime594 / 1184 vs 280 / 50950.2%55%594 / 1184 vs 280 / 509Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ValesMares 1.83/Vales 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares—11813113J. Vales—2111171
LJul 30 · 23:30E. Mares—912781J. Vales—111011113
WJul 30 · 15:30E. Mares—11711143J. Vales—7118121
WJul 29 · 10:30E. Mares—1181111113J. Vales—13115852
LJul 29 · 09:28E. Mares—111169112J. Vales—871111133
LJul 29 · 06:00E. Mares—5113101J. Vales—11711123
LJul 24 · 12:30E. Mares—514851J. Vales—111211113
WJul 24 · 08:58E. Mares—12811113J. Vales—1011951
WJul 24 · 08:00E. Mares—1211113J. Vales—10480
WJul 3 · 10:30E. Mares—81111113J. Vales—119761
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171WSep 4 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.7385130E. Mares2.001111153
J. Vales10
WSep 6 · 09:30J. Vales1.43111114113T. Postelt2.608131271WSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt2.7511117872J. Vales1.40981111113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Vales1.3661111113O. Kolisnyk3.00118661WSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak1.8576110J. Vales1.851111133LSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113LSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113LSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak1.831011511113J. Vales1.8312911592LSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153LSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
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