TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13079388
Played Sep 4Finished
Erik Mares
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
3111191191012511
Josef Medek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Medek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Josef Medek below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 92 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Josef Medek at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 26–54 Josef Medek Erik Mares has won 26 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:07What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Medek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-54 in 80
Medek
Correct
gap of 28 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1906 vs Medek 1903
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 60% vs Medek 40%
Mares
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 60% vs Medek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +3 · Medek +1
Mares
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Medek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Medek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 2.00 / Medek 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Medek)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13079388
Mares2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 103 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 63
Medek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 115 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it93% 57 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it80% 82 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares3wins
AwayMedek7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMedek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares75%3 of 4
AwayMedek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares4Medek6n = 10Medek took 6 of 10
S2Mares7Medek3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S3Mares3Medek7n = 10Medek took 7 of 10
S4Mares3Medek5n = 8Medek took 5 of 8
S5Mares1Medek4n = 5Medek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresMedekMares − MedekBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.143.5−3.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresMedekBasisWin rate · lifetime592 / 1178 vs 296 / 51450.3%57.6%592 / 1178 vs 296 / 514Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekMares 2.00/Medek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Medek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 18:00E. Mares—1111611113J. Medek—78111372
WSep 2 · 21:29E. Mares—11311113J. Medek—611751
LSep 2 · 19:30E. Mares—1011116112J. Medek—128411133
WSep 1 · 16:30E. Mares—111113113J. Medek—781591
LAug 26 · 19:00E. Mares—811591J. Medek—11911113
LAug 25 · 19:30E. Mares—911117122J. Medek—117711143
LAug 2 · 16:30E. Mares—66110J. Medek—1111133
LJun 18 · 19:30E. Mares—21441162J. Medek—1112118113
LJun 17 · 19:30E. Mares—1110140J. Medek—1312163
LJun 6 · 09:00E. Mares—11128742J. Medek—9101111113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171WSep 4 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.7385130E. Mares2.001111153
J. Medek10
WSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690WSep 5 · 16:30J. Vales2.507590J. Medek1.501111113WSep 5 · 15:30J. Medek1.331111113L. Jindrak3.257750LSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121WSep 5 · 13:30J. Vales2.20591181J. Medek1.6011116113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Medek1.831111113J. Zajicek1.839970LSep 5 · 11:00J. Medek1.4461290J. Vales2.631114113WSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113WSep 4 · 20:30J. Medek1.8061111113J. Zajicek1.91117671LSep 4 · 19:00J. Medek1.4076111162J. Vales2.75111145113
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