TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077462
Played Sep 5Finished
Jan Zajicek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117611811––
Erik Mares
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Zajicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Zajicek above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jan Zajicek at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jan Zajicek 62–62 Erik Mares Dead even across their 124 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:08What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zajicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
62-62 in 124
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zajicek 1868 vs Mares 1904
Mares
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zajicek 40% vs Mares 60%
Mares
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zajicek 40% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zajicek -1 · Mares -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zajicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zajicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZajicek 1.73 / Mares 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zajicek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077462
Zajicek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 103 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it85% 81 of 95
Mares2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 103 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZajicek4wins
AwayMares6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMares leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZajicek75%3 of 4
AwayMares83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zajicek4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S2Zajicek3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S3Zajicek2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S4Zajicek3Mares3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricZajicekMaresZ − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.939.7−5.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZajicekMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 654 vs 593 / 118053.1%50.3%347 / 654 vs 593 / 1180Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZajicekZajicek 1.73/Mares 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Zajicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek—911681E. Mares—11711113
LSep 4 · 19:30J. Zajicek—85130E. Mares—1111153
LSep 2 · 20:30J. Zajicek—113281E. Mares—81111113
WAug 30 · 07:00J. Zajicek—11121110113E. Mares—910131262
LAug 26 · 20:30J. Zajicek—71190E. Mares—1113113
WAug 25 · 21:04J. Zajicek—571114113E. Mares—111191292
LAug 25 · 20:00J. Zajicek—7240E. Mares—1111113
WAug 19 · 16:00J. Zajicek—111414123E. Mares—51612101
LAug 18 · 20:58J. Zajicek—6760E. Mares—1111113
WAug 18 · 20:00J. Zajicek—11119113E. Mares—881161
J. Zajicek10
LSep 5 · 17:29J. Medek1.731111113J. Zajicek2.005690LSep 5 · 16:00L. Jindrak2.6391111113J. Zajicek1.44114941WSep 5 · 15:00J. Vales2.6310370J. Zajicek1.441211113WSep 5 · 14:30J. Zajicek1.8311116143J. Medek1.839811121WSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:30J. Medek1.831111113J. Zajicek1.839970LSep 5 · 10:30J. Vales2.631111123J. Zajicek1.4474100WSep 4 · 20:58J. Vales2.508690J. Zajicek1.501111113LSep 4 · 20:30J. Medek1.8061111113J. Zajicek1.91117671LSep 4 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.7385130E. Mares2.001111153
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171WSep 4 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.7385130E. Mares2.001111153
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