TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042166
Played Aug 30Finished
Zdenek Bilek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7119111141161412
Michal Kratochvil
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Kratochvil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZdenek Bilek above · Michal Kratochvil below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 96 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Michal Kratochvil at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Bilek 1–3 Michal Kratochvil Zdenek Bilek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:15What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kratochvil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Kratochvil
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bilek 1778 vs Kratochvil 1682
Bilek
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bilek 20% vs Kratochvil 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bilek 20% vs Kratochvil 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bilek +1 · Kratochvil -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bilek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kratochvil form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBilek 1.83 / Kratochvil 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bilek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042166
Bilek1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kratochvil1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBilek1wins
AwayKratochvil3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKratochvil leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bilek2Kratochvil2n = 4split evenly
S2Bilek1Kratochvil3n = 4Kratochvil took 3 of 4
S3Bilek2Kratochvil2n = 4split evenly
S4Bilek1Kratochvil2n = 3Kratochvil took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricBilekKratochvilB − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.838.0−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBilekKratochvilBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 357 vs 273 / 57052.4%47.9%187 / 357 vs 273 / 570Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BilekBilek 1.83/Kratochvil 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Bilek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bilek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 14 · 23:30Z. Bilek—1171091M. Kratochvil—81112113
LJun 25 · 20:30Z. Bilek—117115112M. Kratochvil—711711133
LJun 6 · 23:30Z. Bilek—61390M. Kratochvil—1115113
WMay 7 · 23:30Z. Bilek—81111113M. Kratochvil—114361
Z. Bilek10
LAug 30 · 13:29Z. Bilek2.1011911482E. Mares1.65311711113WAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442WAug 30 · 10:00E. Mares1.73961131Z. Bilek2.0011114113LAug 15 · 02:30L. Zeman2.3813511113Z. Bilek1.531111941LAug 15 · 01:00T. Postelt2.631111710113Z. Bilek1.4486111292LAug 14 · 23:30Z. Bilek1.801171091M. Kratochvil1.9181112113LAug 14 · 22:00Z. Bilek2.2010380E. Mares1.611211113WAug 8 · 13:00E. Mares1.73551812102Z. Bilek2.0011111610123LAug 8 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.50891181L. Zeman2.5011118113LAug 8 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.67671161L. Jindrak2.1011119113
M. Kratochvil10
WSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:00M. Wollny2.20661181M. Kratochvil1.6111118113WSep 3 · 19:00V. Burdik2.201179101M. Kratochvil1.6191111123LSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:00E. Mares1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.754890LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 08:58M. Kratochvil3.00101111782E. Mares1.36125911113WAug 30 · 08:00M. Kratochvil3.00611718113E. Mares1.36119111662WAug 14 · 23:30Z. Bilek1.801171091M. Kratochvil1.9181112113
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