TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12378218
Played Aug 8Finished
Zdenek Bilek
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811911118811––
Lukas Zeman
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeZdenek Bilek to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZdenek Bilek above · Lukas Zeman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Zdenek Bilek at 65.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Bilek 13–6 Lukas Zeman Lukas Zeman has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Bilek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Bilek
Wrong
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bilek 1826 vs Zeman 1831
Zeman
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bilek 0% vs Zeman 60%
Zeman
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bilek 30% vs Zeman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bilek -5 · Zeman +1
Bilek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Bilek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBilek 1.50 / Zeman 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 35%
Edge (Bilek)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12378218
Bilek1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 39 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Zeman2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 39 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBilek7wins
AwayZeman3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBilek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBilek100%4 of 4
AwayZeman50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bilek4Zeman6n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S2Bilek5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S3Bilek7Zeman3n = 10Bilek took 7 of 10
S4Bilek5Zeman2n = 7Bilek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBilekZemanB − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.334.5+4.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBilekZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 368 vs 249 / 50353%49.5%195 / 368 vs 249 / 503Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BilekBilek 1.50/Zeman 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.5%
Bilek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zeman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 30 · 18:00Z. Bilek—89100L. Zeman—1111123
WApr 26 · 02:30Z. Bilek—111011113L. Zeman—712861
WApr 16 · 21:30Z. Bilek—11713113L. Zeman—9111151
WApr 16 · 19:30Z. Bilek—811911113L. Zeman—11411782
WMar 29 · 21:00Z. Bilek—81411113L. Zeman—1112891
WMar 29 · 18:30Z. Bilek—1211113L. Zeman—10440
LMar 8 · 18:00Z. Bilek—681171L. Zeman—11116113
WMar 8 · 16:30Z. Bilek—1111113L. Zeman—9990
WFeb 5 · 22:02Z. Bilek—981111113L. Zeman—11117252
LFeb 5 · 19:00Z. Bilek—911991L. Zeman—11811113
Z. Bilek10
LAug 30 · 13:29Z. Bilek2.1011911482E. Mares1.65311711113WAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442WAug 30 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.83791111143M. Kratochvil1.83111146122WAug 30 · 10:00E. Mares1.73961131Z. Bilek2.0011114113LAug 15 · 02:30L. Zeman2.3813511113Z. Bilek1.531111941LAug 15 · 01:00T. Postelt2.631111710113Z. Bilek1.4486111292LAug 14 · 23:30Z. Bilek1.801171091M. Kratochvil1.9181112113LAug 14 · 22:00Z. Bilek2.2010380E. Mares1.611211113WAug 8 · 13:00E. Mares1.73551812102Z. Bilek2.0011111610123LAug 8 · 11:00Z. Bilek1.67671161L. Jindrak2.1011119113
L. Zeman10
LSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 02:30E. Mares1.80111311113L. Zeman1.91715881WSep 2 · 01:00F. Wolf2.00118813102L. Zeman1.739111111123WSep 1 · 23:30L. Zeman1.7310111011123J. Kycelt2.00126125102LSep 1 · 22:00L. Zeman1.577118101M. Huk2.2511711123LAug 16 · 13:29J. Cernik1.369111011113L. Zeman3.0011912482LAug 16 · 12:00J. Cernik1.3611911113L. Zeman3.00811481WAug 16 · 11:00M. Kratochvil2.10561281L. Zeman1.67111110113WAug 16 · 10:30L. Zeman1.83911611113J. Kanera1.8311911942WAug 15 · 02:30L. Zeman2.3813511113Z. Bilek1.531111941
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