TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12439605
Played Aug 16Finished
Jan Cernik
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911114118––
Lukas Zeman
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:43 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Cernik above · Lukas Zeman below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Cernik at 55.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jan Cernik 8–5 Lukas Zeman Lukas Zeman has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Cernik
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1936 vs Zeman 1846
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 80% vs Zeman 60%
Cernik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 70% vs Zeman 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -1 · Zeman +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.36 / Zeman 3.00
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Cernik)+9.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12439605
Cernik1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 70 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it87% 54 of 62
Zeman3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 45 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back26% 13 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik7wins
AwayZeman3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik85.7%6 of 7
AwayZeman66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik7Zeman3n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S2Cernik8Zeman2n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S3Cernik8Zeman2n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S4Cernik3Zeman3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikZemanC − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.735.2+4.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 340 vs 257 / 51657.4%49.8%195 / 340 vs 257 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikCernik 1.36/Zeman 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 9 · 12:59J. Cernik—1111111092L. Zeman—138712113
WMay 9 · 12:00J. Cernik—1111113L. Zeman—8960
LApr 12 · 21:28J. Cernik—61112682L. Zeman—1171011113
WApr 12 · 18:00J. Cernik—13911123L. Zeman—11118101
WMar 27 · 02:30J. Cernik—111110113L. Zeman—981271
WMar 24 · 09:30J. Cernik—1111113L. Zeman—9990
WNov 17 · 22:30J. Cernik—111311133L. Zeman—13119111
LNov 17 · 20:00J. Cernik—119671L. Zeman—61111113
WNov 15 · 03:30J. Cernik—1111113L. Zeman—5960
WAug 31 · 03:00J. Cernik—1112113L. Zeman—31090
J. Cernik10
WAug 29 · 13:30J. Cernik2.33911911113L. Boruvka1.5411511792WAug 29 · 12:30J. Cernik2.7512117113L. Boruvka1.401041161WAug 29 · 11:00J. Cernik1.281111113M. Kratochvil3.508630WAug 29 · 10:00J. Zajicek1.401149111J. Cernik2.7561111133WAug 29 · 09:00J. Cernik1.401111123M. Kratochvil2.6579100LAug 29 · 08:00L. Boruvka1.4061111113J. Cernik2.75119941WAug 29 · 07:00M. Kratochvil3.008780J. Cernik1.361111113LAug 29 · 06:30J. Cernik2.75611111182J. Zajicek1.40118713113LAug 28 · 13:30T. Kos2.2011101011113J. Cernik1.6091212992WAug 28 · 12:00M. Kratochvil2.385670J. Cernik1.531111113
L. Zeman10
LSep 2 · 03:00L. Zeman1.73891251J. Kycelt2.00111110113LSep 2 · 02:30E. Mares1.80111311113L. Zeman1.91715881WSep 2 · 01:00F. Wolf2.00118813102L. Zeman1.739111111123WSep 1 · 23:30L. Zeman1.7310111011123J. Kycelt2.00126125102LSep 1 · 22:00L. Zeman1.577118101M. Huk2.2511711123LAug 16 · 13:29J. Cernik1.369111011113L. Zeman3.0011912482WAug 16 · 11:00M. Kratochvil2.10561281L. Zeman1.67111110113WAug 16 · 10:30L. Zeman1.83911611113J. Kanera1.8311911942LAug 15 · 16:59L. Zeman1.5761180M. Kratochvil2.251113113LAug 15 · 16:00E. Mares1.8311916113L. Zeman1.837111491
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