TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13035785
Played Aug 28Finished
Tomas Kos
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11910121012119119
Jan Cernik
Away
1.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:03 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeJan Cernik to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Kos above · Jan Cernik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 104 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jan Cernik at 59.5%
104 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kos 4–10 Jan Cernik Tomas Kos has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:03What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-10 in 14
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kos 1924 vs Cernik 1989
Cernik
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kos 80% vs Cernik 40%
Kos
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kos 60% vs Cernik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kos +4 · Cernik +2
Kos
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Cernik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (40%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKos 2.20 / Cernik 1.60
Signal prob.41% / 60%
Edge (Cernik)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13035785
Kos2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 13 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Cernik1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 80 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it96% 46 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it87% 59 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKos3wins
AwayCernik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKos60%3 of 5
AwayCernik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kos5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S2Kos4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S3Kos3Cernik7n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S4Kos3Cernik3n = 6split evenly
S5Kos1Cernik3n = 4Cernik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosCernikK − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.038.1−1.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 170 vs 187 / 31548.2%59.4%82 / 170 vs 187 / 315Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikKos 2.20/Cernik 1.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.5%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 10:30T. Kos—1111123J. Cernik—39100
WAug 28 · 08:59T. Kos—111199113J. Cernik—96111162
LAug 28 · 07:30T. Kos—105150J. Cernik—1211173
LJul 25 · 09:30T. Kos—111151182J. Cernik—541113113
LJul 25 · 06:30T. Kos—8670J. Cernik—1111113
LJul 19 · 12:30T. Kos—913111172J. Cernik—111528113
LJul 19 · 09:30T. Kos—111181152J. Cernik—813117113
WJul 19 · 07:00T. Kos—11911113J. Cernik—711621
LMay 10 · 10:00T. Kos—711261J. Cernik—11811113
LApr 25 · 19:30T. Kos—66110J. Cernik—1111133
T. Kos10
WAug 30 · 12:59T. Kos1.401111113M. Kratochvil2.756980LAug 30 · 12:30Z. Bilek1.91911811113T. Kos1.8011611442LAug 30 · 11:30T. Kos1.67891181E. Mares2.1011114113WAug 30 · 10:30M. Kratochvil3.00911115142T. Kos1.36116611163LAug 30 · 09:29J. Zajicek1.361111143T. Kos3.0083120LAug 30 · 08:30J. Zajicek1.401111113T. Kos2.758570WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kos1.441111113M. Kratochvil2.638860WAug 30 · 06:30E. Mares2.00411551T. Kos1.7311711113WAug 28 · 12:30E. Mares1.8314580T. Kos1.831611113WAug 28 · 11:30T. Kos1.5391111113M. Kratochvil2.38113461
J. Cernik10
WAug 29 · 13:30J. Cernik2.33911911113L. Boruvka1.5411511792WAug 29 · 12:30J. Cernik2.7512117113L. Boruvka1.401041161WAug 29 · 11:00J. Cernik1.281111113M. Kratochvil3.508630WAug 29 · 10:00J. Zajicek1.401149111J. Cernik2.7561111133WAug 29 · 09:00J. Cernik1.401111123M. Kratochvil2.6579100LAug 29 · 08:00L. Boruvka1.4061111113J. Cernik2.75119941WAug 29 · 07:00M. Kratochvil3.008780J. Cernik1.361111113LAug 29 · 06:30J. Cernik2.75611111182J. Zajicek1.40118713113WAug 28 · 12:00M. Kratochvil2.385670J. Cernik1.531111113WAug 28 · 11:00E. Mares2.10911481J. Cernik1.6711711113
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